Impact of Interannual Soil Moisture Anomaly on Simulation of Extreme Climate Events in China. Part II: Sensitivity Experiment Analysis
Impact of Interannual Soil Moisture Anomaly on Simulation of Extreme Climate Events in China. Part II: Sensitivity Experiment Analysis
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发表时间：
2013
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通讯作者：
C. Haishan
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作者：
C. Haishan
利用NCAR群落大气模式（CAM 3.1）设计了两个数值试验，探讨了土壤水分异常对极端气候事件模拟的可能影响。结果表明，模拟的极端气候事件对土壤湿度异常敏感，土壤湿度异常对极端气候事件的气候学、年际变率和年际变化均有显著影响。在不考虑土壤湿度年际异常的情况下，中国大部分地区的模拟暖夜Tn95p、暖日Tx95p和热浪持续时间HWDI显著减少，霜冻日数FD总体增加。模拟极端降水对土壤水分异常的响应也存在显著的空间差异。淮河流域的极端强降水频率（P95p）明显减小，东北地区的极端强降水强度（R95p）也有所减小，长江流域则有所增大。中国大部分地区的R10（大于10mm降水日数）和CWD（连续湿润日数）均出现了明显的下降。此外，中国大部分地区极端温度的年际变率有所降低，但极端降水的情况更为复杂。P95p和R95p的年际变化在华北地区呈下降趋势，在长江以南地区呈上升趋势。在全国范围内，R10和CWD的年际变率减小。结果还表明，当土壤湿度年际异常被去除后，该模式对极端气候指数，特别是Tn95p和FD的年际变化模拟效果会变差。
Using NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.1), two numerical experiments are designed to explore the possible influence of the soil moisture anomaly on the simulation of extreme climate events. Results show that the simulated extreme climate events are sensitive to the soil moisture anomaly, and the anomaly has significant impacts on the climatology, interannual variability, and interannual variations of extreme climate events. Without the interannual anomaly of soil moisture included, the simulated Tn95p (warm nights), Tx95p (warm days), and HWDI (heat wave duration) significantly decrease in most areas of China, while FD (frost days) increases on the whole. It is also found that the response of the simulated precipitation extremes to the soil moisture anomaly exhibits significant spatial difference. The simulated P95p (the frequency of extreme heavy precipitation) obviously decreases in the Huaihe River basin, and R95p (the intensity of extreme heavy precipitation) also drops in the northeast of China but increases in the Yangtze River valley. Both the simulated R10 (number of days with precipitation greater than 10 mm) and CWD (the consecutive wet days) have experienced an evident drop in most areas of China. In addition, the interannual variability of the temperature extremes has decreased in most areas of China, but the situations of precipitation extremes are much complicated. Both the interannual variability of P95p and R95p decrease in North China and increase over the regions south of the Yangtze River. Throughout the whole country, the interannual variability of R10 and CWD decrease. Results also suggest that the performance of the model in simulating the interannual variations of the extreme climate indices, especially for Tn95p and FD, will become worse when the interannual anomaly of the soil moisture is removed.