Paris Agreement's Ambiguity About Aerosols Drives Uncertain Health and Climate Outcomes
Paris Agreement's Ambiguity About Aerosols Drives Uncertain Health and Climate Outcomes
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DOI：
10.1029/2020ef001787
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发表时间：
2021-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Polonik;K. Ricke;J. Burney
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文献类型：
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作者：
P. Polonik;K. Ricke;J. Burney
人为气溶胶对人类健康有害，但有助于抵消温室气体（GHGs）造成的变暖，从而产生了潜在的监管权衡。随着各国实施《巴黎气候协定》规定的温室气体减排目标，气溶胶及其前体的共同排放也将发生变化。由于这些共同排放因国家和经济部门而异，每个国家将面临气溶胶驱动的健康或温度共同效益之间的不同权衡。我们将物理过程和健康结果的简单参数化结合起来，考察了符合《巴黎协定》目标的三种理想化的气候政策方法，即：(i)优化当地空气质量，（ii）减少全球温度变化，或（iii）减少所有国内经济部门的排放。我们评估了在这三种政策方法下气溶胶对过早死亡和全球平均温度变化的影响，发现到2030年，三种政策产生的每年100多万人过早死亡和全球温度差异与温室气体减排产生的差异相同。我们还表明，与其他任何一种选择相比，在所有经济部门之间实施相同的减排实际上可能导致更少的有益健康和温度结果，特别是在工业化程度较低的地区。因此，我们得出结论，在制定国际气候政策时应明确考虑气溶胶相关的共同效益和气溶胶核算准则。
Anthropogenic aerosols are hazardous to human health but have helped offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs), creating a potential regulatory tradeoff. As countries implement their GHG reduction targets under the Paris climate agreement, the co‐emissions of aerosols and their precursors will also change. Since these co‐emissions vary by country and by economic sector, each country will face different tradeoffs between aerosol‐driven health or temperature co‐benefits. We combine simple parameterizations of physical processes and health outcomes to examine three idealized climate policy approaches that are consistent with the Paris Agreement targets, which (i) optimize for local air quality, (ii) reduce global temperature change, or (iii) reduce emissions equally from all domestic economic sectors. We evaluate aerosol impacts on premature mortality and global mean temperature change under these three policy approaches and find that by 2030 the three policies yield differences of over 1 million annual premature deaths and global temperature differences of the same magnitude as those from GHG reductions. We also show that implementing equal reductions between all economic sectors can actually result in less beneficial health and temperature outcomes than either of the other options, especially in less industrialized regions. We therefore conclude that aerosol‐related co‐benefits and aerosol accounting guidelines should be explicitly considered in setting international climate policy.