Model approaches for estimating the influence of time-varying socio-environmental factors on macroparasite transmission in two endemic regions.
Model approaches for estimating the influence of time-varying socio-environmental factors on macroparasite transmission in two endemic regions.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2009.10.001
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发表时间：
2009-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Spear, Robert C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Remais, Justin;Zhong, Bo;Carlton, Elizabeth J.;Spear, Robert C.
关键词：
病媒和宿主传播疾病的环境决定因素包括改变关键传播参数的时变成分，导致环境现象和传播过程之间的瞬时耦合。虽然一些时变的驱动因素本质上是周期性的，但有些是非周期性的，例如涉及间歇性事件或复杂的人类行为模式的驱动因素。了解这些关联可以预测感染风险高峰期，并最终为优化干预选择和时机提供机会。人类的血吸虫大型寄生虫具有多个自由生活阶段和中间宿主，因此是阐明环境强迫对传播影响的模式生物。血吸虫随时间变化的环境因素，称为门控函数，包括幼虫对温度和降雨的反应，季节性接触水的模式，以及由天气变量驱动的钉螺种群动态。回顾了这些改良剂的生物学基础，估计了它们的值，并将其纳入一个传播模型，该模型模拟了两个血吸虫病流行区的多年周期。模拟结果结合尺度相关分析表明，这些特定于站点的门控函数的最终效果是以一种对站点之间的水文差异特别敏感的方式强烈地控制这些群落中的蠕虫负担。确定了两类门控功能，一类是协同作用来修正人类感染(并确定季节后期的蠕虫获取)，另一类是作用于钉螺感染(并确定早期季节蠕虫的获取)。讨论了这些因素对控制程序和监视的重要性。
The environmental determinants of vector- and host-borne diseases include time-varying components that modify key transmission parameters, resulting in transient couplings between environmental phenomena and transmission processes. While some time-varying drivers are periodic in nature, some are aperiodic, such as those that involve episodic events or complex patterns of human behavior. Understanding these couplings can allow for prediction of periods of peak infection risk, and ultimately presents opportunities for optimizing intervention selection and timing. Schistosome macroparasites of humans exhibit multiple free-living stages as well as intermediate hosts, and are thus model organisms for illustrating the influence of environmental forcing on transmission. Time-varying environmental factors, termed gating functions, for schistosomes include larval response to temperature and rainfall, seasonal water contact patterns and snail population dynamics driven by weather variables. The biological bases for these modifiers are reviewed, and their values are estimated and incorporated into a transmission model that simulates a multi-year period in two schistosomiasis endemic regions. Modeling results combined with a scale dependent correlation analysis indicate the end effect of these site-specific gating functions is to strongly govern worm burden in these communities, in a manner particularly sensitive to the hydrological differences between sites. Two classes of gating functions were identified, those that act in concert to modify human infection (and determine worm acquisition late in the season), and those that act on snail infection (and determine early season worm acquisition). The importance of these factors for control programs and surveillance is discussed.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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