Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events.
Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events.
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DOI：
10.7554/elife.63537
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发表时间：
2021-02-23
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Mayer BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goyal A;Reeves DB;Cardozo-Ojeda EF;Schiffer JT;Mayer BT
SARS-CoV-2 很难遏制，因为许多传播发生在症状前感染期间。与流感不同的是，大多数 SARS-CoV-2 感染者不会传播，而一小部分人会感染大量人群。我们设计了数学模型，将观察到的病毒载量与每种病毒的流行病学特征联系起来，包括每个感染者的传播分布以及传播者和继发感染者出现症状之间的持续时间。我们发现，感染 SARS-CoV-2 或流感的人可能在不到 1 天的时间内具有高度传染性，这与病毒载量峰值一致。当感染者的病毒载量非常高并且有大量接触者时，就会发生 SARS-CoV-2 超级传播者事件。 SARS-CoV-2 更容易发生超级传播事件，这不能归因于相对于流感的多几周的传播时间。相反，感染 SARS-CoV-2 的人会在同等的物理接触网络中暴露更多的人，这可能是由于雾化作用。
SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during pre-symptomatic infection. Unlike influenza, most SARS-CoV-2-infected people do not transmit while a small percentage infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models which link observed viral loads with epidemiologic features of each virus, including distribution of transmissions attributed to each infected person and duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person. We identify that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza can be highly contagious for less than 1 day, congruent with peak viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events occur when an infected person is shedding at a very high viral load and has a high number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 toward super-spreading events cannot be attributed to additional weeks of shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks, likely due to aerosolization.