Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering
Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000720
复制
发表时间：
2018-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Moore, John C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Anthony C.;Hawcroft, Matthew K.;Moore, John C.
2015年的《巴黎协定》旨在将全球变暖限制在比工业化前水平高出2 K以下，并努力将全球变暖限制在1.5 K以内，以避免危险的气候变化。然而，目前的温室气体排放目标更符合世纪末全球变暖2.6- 3.1 K的情景，与1.5 K的目标明显矛盾。在这项研究中，我们使用一个全球气候模式，调查气候影响，利用太阳地球工程平流层气溶胶注入，以稳定全球平均温度在1.5 K的持续时间的21世纪世纪对三个方案跨越范围内的合理温室气体减排途径（RCP 2.6，RCP 4.5，和RCP 8.5）。除了稳定全球平均温度和抵消北极海冰损失和热释电海平面上升，我们发现，太阳能地球工程可以有效地抵消北大西洋极端风暴和欧洲热浪频率的增加，但在抵消亚马逊流域和北大西洋风暴轨迹位移的水文变化方面效果较差。总之，太阳能地球工程可以减少全球平均影响，但在区域一级是一个不完美的解决方案，因为区域一级经历了气候变化的影响。我们的研究结果应该激发对太阳地球工程气候响应区域性的研究。
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.