Analysis of Settlement Expansion and Urban Growth Modelling Using Geoinformation for Assessing Potential Impacts of Urbanization on Climate in Abuja City, Nigeria
Analysis of Settlement Expansion and Urban Growth Modelling Using Geoinformation for Assessing Potential Impacts of Urbanization on Climate in Abuja City, Nigeria
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DOI：
10.3390/rs8030220
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Ahmad, Halilu Shaba
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mahmoud, Mahmoud Ibrahim;Duker, Alfred;Ahmad, Halilu Shaba
本研究利用地理信息和辅助数据集，分析了尼日利亚阿布贾（西非发展最快的城市之一）定居点扩张的时空格局。1986年、2001年和2014年的三个时期的土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）地图是使用支持向量机（SVM）从Landsat图像中导出的。基于像素数的LULC地图的准确性评估（AA）导致总体准确度为82%，92%和92%，而1986年，2001年和2014年的误差调整面积（EAA）方法得出的AA分别为69%，91%和91%。两个主要的技术检测变化的LULC时代涉及使用二进制地图以及分类后比较的方法。定量时空分析进行检测LULC的变化，具体侧重于解决发展模式的联邦首都阿布贾（FCC）的尼日利亚。为预测2050年的未来情景，使用IDRISI软件包中的嵌入式土地变化建模器（LCM），对向城市类别的逻辑过渡进行了建模。根据EAA，结果表明，1986年至2001年期间，城市地区增加了11%以上。相比之下，这一数值在2001年至2014年间上升至17%。LCM模型预测的LULC变化显示出定居点扩张的增长趋势，如果不实施严格的发展政策和执法措施，可能会占用分配给绿色地区和农业用地的空间。最后，将地理空间技术与辅助数据集相结合，有助于更好地了解城市化进程，如增加如此大规模的不透水性，如何通过改变自然地表温度影响城市小气候。城市扩张还可能导致地表径流增加以及排水地形的变化，从而导致城市洪水。
This study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of settlement expansion in Abuja, Nigeria, one of West Africa's fastest developing cities, using geoinformation and ancillary datasets. Three epochs of Land-use Land-cover (LULC) maps for 1986, 2001 and 2014 were derived from Landsat images using support vector machines (SVM). Accuracy assessment (AA) of the LULC maps based on the pixel count resulted in overall accuracy of 82%, 92% and 92%, while the AA derived from the error adjusted area (EAA) method stood at 69%, 91% and 91% for 1986, 2001 and 2014, respectively. Two major techniques for detecting changes in the LULC epochs involved the use of binary maps as well as a post-classification comparison approach. Quantitative spatiotemporal analysis was conducted to detect LULC changes with specific focus on the settlement development pattern of Abuja, the federal capital city (FCC) of Nigeria. Logical transitions to the urban category were modelled for predicting future scenarios for the year 2050 using the embedded land change modeler (LCM) in the IDRISI package. Based on the EAA, the result showed that urban areas increased by more than 11% between 1986 and 2001. In contrast, this value rose to 17% between 2001 and 2014. The LCM model projected LULC changes that showed a growing trend in settlement expansion, which might take over allotted spaces for green areas and agricultural land if stringent development policies and enforcement measures are not implemented. In conclusion, integrating geospatial technologies with ancillary datasets offered improved understanding of how urbanization processes such as increased imperviousness of such a magnitude could influence the urban microclimate through the alteration of natural land surface temperature. Urban expansion could also lead to increased surface runoff as well as changes in drainage geography leading to urban floods.