Feasibility Study on Hydrologic Simulation in Basins with Macro-Scale Data Scarce
Feasibility Study on Hydrologic Simulation in Basins with Macro-Scale Data Scarce
复制标题
宏观数据匮乏流域水文模拟可行性研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yuan Fei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Liqun;L. Changming;Yuan Fei
宏观尺度的水文预报，数据稀缺的流域是当前水文研究的热点，水文模型是水文预报的重要工具，基于物理的水文模型已广泛应用于水循环研究、流域水资源规划与管理。一个特定的水文模型能否在特定的时间尺度上准确地描述特定区域的水文过程，取决于模型的结构和输入数据的质量，包括水文气候数据和下垫面数据。在数据稀缺的流域，宏观和微观尺度的水文预报严重依赖输入数据。本研究选择一个基于物理的分布式水文模型VIC-3L，研究其在黄河源区的适应性。该模型的总面积为122 000 km2，只有8个气象站。研究区域被划分为218个0.25°×0.25°网格的方形单元。计算包括日降雨量在内的数据，用反距离加权(IDW)方法将8个气象站的最低和最高气温资料嵌入到每个单元格中。利用耦合路径模型将每个单元格的径流汇入区域的出水口。参考流域出水口3个不同时间尺度(年、月和日)的模拟和观测径流来研究VIC-3L在该地区进行水文模拟的可行性。在年-时间尺度上，校准期和验证期的最大水量平衡误差都在10%以下，月径流序列的Nash-Sutcliffe系数和径流历时曲线误差指数(EI)都能满足一定的判据，表明VIC-3L模型能够再现月径流过程。虽然模拟的日径流形状与观测的日径流形状符合得很好，但Nash-Sutcliffe系数和EI不能通过标准，证明该地区的VIC-3L模型不能准确地描述给定日强迫数据下的日径流。造成这种现象的原因是多方面的，如模型结构、模型结构、径流持续时间曲线误差指数(EI)、日径流持续时间误差指数(EI)、日径流持续时间误差指数(EI)和日径流持续时间误差指数(EI)。结果表明，VIC-3L模型可以作为该地区年或月尺度的水资源规划和管理工具，但如果需要日水文过程，则需要其他数据源，因此应在该地区建设更多的气象站或应用微波遥感等现代监测技术。
Hydrologic predictions at Macro-scale,data scarce basins are now a hotspot in hydrologic researches.Hydrological models are important tools in hydrologic prediction,and physical based hydrological models have been widely applied for water cycle researches,watershed water resources planning and management. Whether a specific hydrological model could precisely describe the hydrologic processes of a specific region at a specific time scale depends on the structure of the model and the quality of input data,including hydro-climate data and underlaying surface data.Macro and micro-scale hydrologic predictions in data-scarce basin depend heavily on input data.In this research,a physical based distributed hydrological model VIC-3L was selected to study its adaptability in the source regions of the Yellow River.The total area is(122 000) km~2 and there are only 8 meteorological stations.The study regions were divided into 218 square-cells of 0.25°×0.25° grids.Forcing data including daily precipitation,minimum and maximum temperature data from 8 meteorological stations were interpolated into each cell using inverse distance weighted(IDW) method.Runoff of each cell was routed to the regions' outlet with a coupled routing model.Simulated and observed runoff at three different time scales(yearly,monthly and daily) of the basins' outlet were referred to investigate the feasibility of hydrologic simulation of VIC-3L in this regions.As for the yearly-time-scale,the maximum water balance error of calibration and validation periods are both below 10%,which shows the performance of VIC-3L on this time scale is good.Both Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and flow duration curve error index(EI) of monthly runoff series can satisfy a certain criterion showing that VIC-3L can reproduce monthly hydrologic process.Although the shape of modeled daily runoff fits well with that of the observed one,Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and EI cannot pass the standards proving that VIC-3L model in this regions cannot precisely describe the daily runoff with the given daily forcing data.Many resources can contribute to this phenomenon,such as model structure,cell numbers and input data quantity.In the study regions it is mainly because of the insufficient meteorological station that cannot describe daily rainfall spatial distribution.These results show that VIC-3L model can be used as water resource planning and management tools in this regions on yearly or monthly time scale,however if the daily hydrologic processes is required,other data sources are needed.So more meteorological stations should be constructed or other modern monitoring techniques such as remote sensing of micro-wave techniques should be applied in these regions.