Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control
Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268807009144
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Viboud, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chowell, G.;Miller, M. A.;Viboud, C.
世界各地季节性地观察到流感的反复流行，具有相当大的健康和经济后果。控制传染病的一个关键数量是繁殖数，它衡量病原体的传播能力，并决定控制流行病所需的公共卫生干预措施的规模。在这里，我们将一个简单的流行病模型应用于流感死亡率的每周指标，以估计美国，法国和澳大利亚三十年来季节性流感流行的繁殖数量。我们发现这三个国家的繁殖数量估计值分布相似，平均值为1中心点3，年度间变异性很大（范围为0中心点9-2中心点1）。从两个不同的死亡率指标（肺炎和流感超额死亡和流感特异性死亡）得出的估计值在美国非常一致（相关性=0，中心点61，P
Recurrent epidemics of influenza are observed seasonally around the world with considerable health and economic consequences. A key quantity for the control of infectious diseases is the reproduction number, which measures the transmissibility of a pathogen and determines the magnitude of public health interventions necessary to control epidemics. Here we applied a simple epidemic model to weekly indicators Of influenza mortality to estimate the reproduction numbers of seasonal influenza epidemics spanning three decades in the United States, France, and Australia.. We found similar distributions of reproduction number estimates in the three countries, with mean Value 1 center dot 3 and important year-to-year variability (range 0 center dot 9-2 center dot 1). Estimates derived from two different mortality indicators (pneumonia and influenza excess deaths and influenza-specific deaths) were in close agreement for the United States (correlation=0 center dot 61, P