Association between meteorological factors and reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2000 to 2015 in Japan
Association between meteorological factors and reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2000 to 2015 in Japan
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268817001820
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Kobayashi, N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sumi, A.;Toyoda, S.;Kobayashi, N.
本研究的目的是阐明手足口病（HFMD）流行与气象条件之间的关系。我们使用了2000年1月至2015年12月日本所有47个都道府县的手足口病监测数据。使用最大熵法（MEM）对温度、相对湿度和总湿度依赖的发生率数据进行光谱分析。使用MEM估计的周期，使用最小二乘拟合（LSF）方法计算长期振荡趋势。根据LSF曲线估计了手足口病数据的温度和相对湿度阈值。平均温度数据表明，手足口病感染风险的下限为12摄氏度，上限为30摄氏度。最高和最低温度数据表明，6摄氏度为较低阈值，35摄氏度为较高阈值，这表明需要在6至35摄氏度之间的温度下采取手足口病控制措施。根据我们的研究结果，我们建议使用最高和最低温度而不是平均温度来估计手足口病感染的温度阈值。所得结果可能有助于预测流行和准备的影响，气候变化对手足口病流行病学。
The purpose of this study was to clarify the association between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics and meteorological conditions. We used HFMD surveillance data of all 47 prefectures in Japan from January 2000 to December 2015. Spectral analysis was performed using the maximum entropy method (MEM) for temperature-, relative humidity-, and total rainfall-dependent incidence data. Using MEM-estimated periods, long-term oscillatory trends were calculated using the least squares fitting (LSF) method. The temperature and relative humidity thresholds of HFMD data were estimated from the LSF curves. The average temperature data indicated a lower threshold at 12 degrees C and a higher threshold at 30 degrees C for risk of HFMD infection. Maximum and minimum temperature data indicated a lower threshold at 6 degrees C and a higher threshold at 35 degrees C, suggesting a need for HFMD control measures at temperatures between 6 and 35 degrees C. Based on our findings, we recommend the use of maximum and minimum temperatures rather than the average temperature, to estimate the temperature threshold of HFMD infections. The results obtained might aid in the prediction of epidemics and preparation for the effect of climatic changes on HFMD epidemiology.