Russian mortality trends for 1991-2001: analysis by cause and region
Russian mortality trends for 1991-2001: analysis by cause and region
复制标题
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.327.7421.964
复制
发表时间：
2003-10-25
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zaridze, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Men, T;Brennan, P;Zaridze, D
目的调查1991-2001年俄罗斯死亡率的趋势，特别是自1998年俄罗斯经济危机以来的趋势和俄罗斯境内的地理差异。设计分析1991-2001年俄罗斯国家统计委员会提供的数据。对七个联邦地区的全因死亡率进行了比较。比较了年轻人（15-34岁）和中年人（35-69岁）的病因特异性比率。对1992-2001年期间70岁以前死亡的俄罗斯成年人人数进行了计算，其死亡可归因于死亡率上升。主要结局指标年龄、性别和特定原因死亡率按照世界人口标准进行标准化。结果1998年经济危机后，死亡率大幅上升，到2001年，男性的预期寿命降至58.9岁，女性的预期寿命降至71.8岁。这些波动大多是由于青壮年中血管疾病和暴力死亡（主要是自杀、杀人、意外中毒和交通事故）死亡率的变化造成的。俄罗斯各地的趋势相似。1992年至2001年期间，俄罗斯中年人的死亡人数比按照1991年的死亡率计算的要多出250万至300万。结论俄罗斯的死亡率在1991年已经很高，并在随后的十年中进一步增加。死亡率的波动似乎与潜在的经济和社会因素密切相关。就个人而言，酒精消费至少在一定程度上导致了这些趋势。
Objectives To investigate trends in Russian mortality for 1991-2001 with particular reference to trends since the Russian economic crisis in 1998 and to geographical differences within Russia.Design Analysis of data obtained from the Russian State statistics committee for 1991-2001. All cause mortality was compared between seven federal regions. Comparison of cause specific rates was conducted for young (15-34 years) and middle aged adults (35-69 years). The number of Russian adults who died before age 70 in the period 1992-2001 and whose deaths were attributable to increased mortality was calculated.Main outcome measures Age, sex, and cause specific mortality standardised to the world population.Results Mortality increased substantially after the economic crisis in 1998, with life expectancy falling to 58.9 years among men and 71.8 years among women by 2001. Most of these fluctuations were due to changes in mortality from vascular disease and violent deaths (mainly suicides, homicides, unintentional poisoning, and traffic incidents) among young and middle aged adults. Trends were similar in all parts of Russia. An extra 2.5-3 million Russian adults died in middle age in the period 1992-2001 than would have been expected based on 1991 mortality.Conclusions Russian mortality Was already high in 1991 and has increased further in the subsequent decade. Fluctuations in mortality seem to correlate strongly with underlying economic and societal factors. On an individual level, alcohol consumption is strongly implicated in being at least partially responsible for many of these trends.