State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network
State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network
复制标题
状态变化：来自美国长期生态研究网络的见解
DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.3433
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Collins, Scott L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zinnert, Julie C.;Nippert, Jesse B.;Rudgers, Jennifer A.;Pennings, Steven C.;González, Grizelle;Alber, Merryl;Baer, Sara G.;Blair, John M.;Burd, Adrian;Collins, Scott L.
了解生态系统正在变化的复杂和不可预测的方式，并预测生态系统的状态及其未来将提供的服务，需要协调一致的长期研究。这篇论文是美国国家科学基金会资助的长期生态研究(LTER)网络综合工作的产物，该网络综合工作旨在解决未来人口和社区的预期变化。每个LTER站点根据每个生态系统中的长期模式和对全球变化驱动因素的响应，描述了它们的站点在50年或100年后的样子。出现了共同的主题，预测被归类为状态变化、连通性、复原力、时间滞后和级联效应。在这里，我们报道“状态变化”主题，其中包括佐治亚州海岸(沿海沼泽)、康扎草原(中级草原)、卢基洛(热带森林)、塞维莱塔(干旱草原)和弗吉尼亚海岸(沿海草原)站点的例子。生态阈值(环境驱动力的微小变化可以导致生态系统质量、属性或现象的突然和持久状态变化的点)是最常见的预测。例如，在沿海生态系统中，海平面上升和气候变化可能会把盐沼变成红树林，把海岸屏障沙丘变成灌木丛。火烧频率的减少使中原草原的草地转变为灌丛，而过度放牧与干旱相结合导致干旱草原的灌木侵蚀。最后，热带云雾森林容易受到气候引起的云底海拔变化的影响，从而导致物种分布的变化。总体而言，这些例子表明，状态变化是各种生态系统中全球环境变化的可能结果，并突显了需要进行长期研究，以理清状态变化的原因和后果。LTER网络中站点的多样性促进了关于状态变化的总体概念的出现，这些概念是生态系统结构、功能、服务和未来的重要驱动因素。
Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long‐term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in 50 or 100 yr based on long‐term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo (tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds (the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea‐level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate‐induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across a diverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long‐term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.