Estimating the Number of Immigrants in Spain: An Indirect Method Based on Births and Fertility Rates
Estimating the Number of Immigrants in Spain: An Indirect Method Based on Births and Fertility Rates
复制标题
估计西班牙移民人数：基于出生率和生育率的间接方法
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Sánchez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Rosero;T. Castro;D. Reher;M. Sánchez
本文提出了一种间接的方法来验证现有的估计移民的股票从西班牙市政人口登记，有些人认为可能是过度计算移民谁在不同的城市双重登记或未能注销时离开该国。所提出的方法使用两条信息：移民的出生和他们的生育率。按父母原籍分列的出生数据来自西班牙出生登记处;生育率是根据2007年全国移民调查的数据估算的。对于女性移民，间接估计数与登记册中的计数没有显著差异，这可以被视为两个来源的验证。然而，在男子中，人口登记的移民人数比间接估计数多15%，这一差异在统计上是显著的。与本文的估计数相比，西欧男性和女性以及罗马尼亚男性是人口登记中大量和统计上显著超额的移民群体。厄瓜多尔男子和妇女以及非洲男子的情况则相反，即登记人数与估计移民人数的比率低于1，这表明这些群体在人口登记中可能被低估，尽管观察到的差异在统计上并不显著。
This article proposes an indirect method to validate existing estimates of immigrants’ stock from the Spanish municipal population register, which some believe might be over-counting immigrants who double register in different municipalities or fail to deregister when leaving the country. The proposed method uses two pieces of information: births to immigrants and their fertility rates. Data on births by parents’ origin come from the Spanish birth registry; fertility rates are estimated with data from the 2007 National Immigrant Survey. For female immigrants, the indirect estimate does not differ significantly from the count in the register, which can be taken as a validation of both sources. Among men, however, the population register counts 15% more immigrants than the indirect estimate, and this difference is statistically significant. Western European men and women, and Romanian men are immigrant groups with substantial and statistically significant excess count in the population register compared to this article’s estimate. The opposite pattern, i.e. ratio of register-to-estimated number of immigrants lower than one, is found for Ecuadorian men and women and African men, suggesting that these groups might be under-counted in the population register, although the observed differentials are not statistically significant.