Global and regional orders in the 21st century in terms of multi-layered power transition theory: The cases of US–China and China–Japan relations
Global and regional orders in the 21st century in terms of multi-layered power transition theory: The cases of US–China and China–Japan relations
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多层权力转移理论视角下的21世纪全球和地区秩序：以中美、中日关系为例
DOI：
10.1177/2233865915600397
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
0.7
通讯作者：
Sang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sang
在这篇文章中，我从权力转移的角度分析了双层权力斗争。本研究将美国和中国之间的全球权力转移案例与中国和日本之间的区域权力转移案例进行了比较。本世纪初以来，全球秩序中的美中关系比地区秩序中的中日关系更加合作。问题在于这两种情况如何相互作用。第一种情况表明，全球秩序的稳定抑制了地区秩序的不稳定。美中伙伴关系稳定了中日冲突关系。在此形势下，美国、中国和日本维持现状政策，地区秩序稳定。第二种情况是地区秩序的不稳定压倒全球秩序的稳定。在此形势下，中日加速东北亚霸权斗争，美国则充当中日斡旋者。美国应该就采取何种外交立场来缓和中日之间的紧张关系做出决定。美国还必须制定自己的世界战略。中国更有可能成为全球秩序中维持现状的大国，但也是打破东北亚现状的挑战者。然而，美国的作用对于使这一权力转移稳定或不稳定至关重要。
In this article I analyze double-layered power struggles from a power transition perspective. This study compares the case of global power transition between the US and China linked to a case of regional power transition between China and Japan. US–China relations in the global order have been more cooperative than China–Japan relations in the regional order since the beginning of this century. The question is about how the two cases interact with respect to each other. The first scenario shows that stability in the global order deters instability in the regional order. The US–China partnership stabilizes China–Japan conflictual relations. In this situation the US, China and Japan maintain status quo policies and regional order is stabilized. The second scenario is one in which instability in the regional order overwhelms stability in the global order. In this situation China and Japan accelerate their hegemonic struggles in Northeast Asia, and the US serves to mediate between China and Japan. The US should be making a decision as to what kind of diplomatic stance it will take to minimize the tension between China and Japan. The US must also make its own world strategy. China is more likely to be a status quo power in the global order, but a challenger in breaking down the status quo in Northeast Asia. However, the US role is critical in making this power transition stable or unstable.