Spatial Differences and Influencing Factors of Global Energy Consumption
Spatial Differences and Influencing Factors of Global Energy Consumption
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
Sun Deqiang
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作者：
Sun Deqiang
在全球范围内，由于地理条件和自然资源禀赋的差异，不同国家的能源消费方式也不尽相同。识别这些差异有助于设计合理的节能减排系统或战略规划。本文选取了46个主要国家（加上中国香港特别行政区）。在此基础上，对能源消耗总量、结构和效率的空间分布特征进行了调查和分析。在此基础上，通过引入一种新方法，详细分析了这些特性的影响因素。消费特征数据来自英国石油公司（BP）。这些特征的影响因素数据来源于世界银行数据库中的世界发展指标。采用层次偏最小二乘模型（Hi_PLS）。该模型的一个优点是隔离了自变量共线性的影响。结果表明：①能源消费总量主要集中在北半球，即北美洲、欧亚大陆和亚洲；但人均能源消费主要集中在油气资源禀赋丰富的国家或经济发达地区。②中东国家的能源消费结构受其油气资源禀赋的显著影响。除了石油和天然气，中东国家的其他能源消耗几乎为零。3)能源利用效率高的国家主要分布在中南美洲、欧洲、欧亚和亚太地区。然而，北美、中东和非洲国家的能源利用效率较低。(4)全球范围内能源消费增长最重要的影响因素是交通运输和信息产业活动（包括基础设施建设）。其次是医疗行业活动和其他经济活动。第三影响因素是研发和农业活动。这些活动对人口增长及其结构变化和教育产业的能源消费增长的促进作用不显著，可以忽略不计。最后，提出了减缓全球能源消耗，促进各国向低碳、清洁、可持续发展模式转变的措施。
On a globe scale, different countries have varying energy consumption modes due to differences in geographical conditions and natural resources endowment. Discerning these differences can help design a reasonable system or strategic planning for energy conservation and emissions reduction. In this paper, 46 major countries (plus Hong Kong Special Admistrative Region of China) were selected. Then, the spatial distribution characteristics of energy consumption amount, structure, and efficiency were investigated and analyzed. Furthermore, influencing factors of these characteristics were examined in detail by introducing a new method. Data of consumption characteristics were obtained from the British Petroleum (BP). Data of influencing factors of these characteristics were obtain from the World Development Indicators (WDI) in the World Bank Database. The Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model (Hi_PLS) was used. One advantage of this model is to isolate the impact from collinearity in the independent variables. Results show that 1) energy consumption quantity is mainly concentrated in the northern part of the world, i.e., North America, Eurasia, and Asia. The per capita energy consumption, however, is mainly concentrated in countries with the endowment of high oil and gas resources or in economically developed areas. 2)The energy consumption structure of the Middle East 4 countries is significantly affected by their oil and gas resources endowment. Except for oil and gas, the other energy consumption of the Middle East 4 countries is almost zero. 3) Countries with high energy use efficiency are mainly distributed in Central South America, Europe Eurasia and Asia Pacific regions. However, countries in North America, the Middle East, and Africa have low energy use efficiency. 4) The most important influencing factors of energy consumption growth on a global scale are transportation and information industry activities (including infrastructure construction). The secondary influencing factors are medical industry activities and other economic activities. The tertiary influencing factors are RD and agricultural activities. The promotion effect of energy consumption growth from these activities of population growth and its structure variation and the education industry is not marked, and then can be neglected. At last, measures of slowing global energy consumption and promoting different countries to transfer to a low carbon, clean and sustainable development mode were put forward.