Simulation and Projection of Summer Convective Afternoon Rainfall Activities over Southeast Asia in CMIP6 Models
Simulation and Projection of Summer Convective Afternoon Rainfall Activities over Southeast Asia in CMIP6 Models
复制标题
CMIP6模式对东南亚夏季对流午后降雨活动的模拟与预测
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0788.1
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Pin-Yi Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wan Ru Huang;Ya Hui Chang;Liping Deng;Pin-Yi Liu
摘要下午对流降雨（CAR）事件，往往会产生一个当地的降雨通常在下午，是最常见的地方在东南亚地区的天气模式在夏季。利用卫星降水资料作为模式评估的观测基础，对CMIP 6第六阶段提供的10个全球气候模式在模拟东南亚CAR活动中的适用性进行了研究。分析还着重探讨了未来CAR活动相关预测的特征和维持机制。我们对历史模拟的分析表明，EC-Earth 3和EC-Earth 3-Veg是模拟东南亚CAR活动（包括数量，频率和强度）的两个最佳模型。分析还表明，EC-Earth 3和EC-Earth 3-Veg优于其早期版本（即，EC-Earth），因为CMIP 6的空间分辨率提高了。对于未来的预测，我们对未来（2071-2100年，在ssp 858运行下）和现在（1985-2014年，在历史运行下）之间CAR活动差异的研究表明，在东南亚的大多数陆地地区，CAR事件将变得更少，但更强烈。CAR强度（频率）预计增加（减少）的可能原因是当地大气湿度（海风辐合和白天热不稳定性）预计增加（减少）。这些发现提供了深入了解东南亚当地天气/气候在全球变暖下可能如何变化的信息。
Abstract Convective afternoon rainfall (CAR) events, which tend to generate a local rainfall typically in the afternoon, are among the most frequently observed local weather patterns over Southeast Asia during summer. Using satellite precipitation estimations as an observational base for model evaluation, this study examines the applicability of ten global climate models provided by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the CAR activities over Southeast Asia. Analyses also focus on exploring the characteristics and maintenance mechanisms of related projections of CAR activities in the future. Our analyses of the historical simulation indicate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg are the two best models for simulating CAR activities (including amount, frequency, and intensity) over Southeast Asia. Analyses also demonstrate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg outperform their earlier version (i.e., EC-Earth) in CMIP5 owing to the increase in its spatial resolution in CMIP6. For future projections, our examinations of the differences in CAR activities between the future (2071–2100, under the ssp858 run) and the present (1985–2014, under historical run) indicate that CAR events will become fewer but more intense over most land areas of Southeast Asia. Possible causes of the projected increase (decrease) in CAR intensity (frequency) are attributed to the projected increase (decrease) in the local atmospheric humidity (sea breeze convergence and daytime thermal instability). These findings provide insight into how the local weather/climate over Southeast Asia is likely to change under global warming.