Historical trends in suicide risk for the residents of mainland China: APC modeling of the archived national suicide mortality rates during 1987-2012
Historical trends in suicide risk for the residents of mainland China: APC modeling of the archived national suicide mortality rates during 1987-2012
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DOI：
10.1007/s00127-018-1593-z
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Wang, Peigang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Xinguang;Sun, Yang;Wang, Peigang
研究目的中国历史上发生了显著的变化，近年来自杀率迅速下降，这为研究自杀风险提供了机会。在这项研究中，我们调查了自杀风险与历史的角度与存档的数据，通知自杀研究和预防policies and strategies.Methoddocumented年龄别自杀死亡率在1987-2012年分解为年龄，期间，队列效应使用APC建模方法和内在估计（IE）技术。估计的效果进一步分析，通过数值differentiation.ResultsThe数据令人满意地拟合所构建的APC模型。队列效应表明，中国自杀危险性在1903-1967年期间波动在很高的水平，随后在1968-1977年期间急剧下降，在1983-1987年达到最低水平，然后再次上升。期间效应证实了自1987年以来的下降趋势。3个晴天组自杀风险降低，4个阴天组自杀风险增加，分别与20世纪以来中国重大文化、社会、政治和经济事件有关。随着国家的进一步发展，由于年轻人（特别是年轻女性）的风险越来越大，自杀率预计会增加。研究结果显示，预防及控制自杀的国家策略，包括维持社会和谐稳定、提供更多发展机会、促进社会融合，以及限制自杀诱因等，都是非常重要的。
PurposeDistinctive and dramatic changes in the history of China with a rapid suicide decline in recent years present an opportunity to investigate the risk of suicide. In this study, we investigated suicide risk with a historical perspective with archived data to inform suicide research and prevention policies and strategies.MethodDocumented age-specific suicide mortality rates in 1987-2012 were decomposed into age, period, and cohort effect using APC-modeling method and intrinsic estimator (IE) technique. The estimated effects were further analyzed by numerical differentiation.ResultsThe data satisfactorily fit the constructed APC models. Cohort effect indicated that suicide risk in China fluctuated at very high levels during 1903-1967, followed by a sharp decline during 1968-1977, and reached the lowest level in 1983-1987 before increased again. Period effect confirmed the declining trend since 1987. Three sunny cohorts with reduced suicide risk and four cloudy cohorts with increased risk were, respectively, associated with significant cultural, social, political, and economic events in China since the 1900s.ConclusionsThe mega trends in the suicide risk at the population level are closely related to significant historical events in China. Suicide is anticipated to increase because of the growing risk for the young cohorts (particularly young females) as the country further develops. Study findings suggest the significance of national strategies for suicide prevention and control, including maintenance of social harmony and stability, provision of more opportunities for development, enhancement of social integration, and restriction of suicide facilitating factors.