Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin
Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1999.0763
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发表时间：
1999-06-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Huntley, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hill, JK;Thomas, CD;Huntley, B
人类活动导致全球气候变化的证据正在积累，但其对昆虫分布的潜在影响却很少受到关注。本文采用“气候响应面”模型研究了斑木蝶北缘的分布变化。我们将其目前在欧洲的分布与三个生物气候变量的组合联系起来。我们的研究表明，自1940年以来，该物种的北缘已经大幅扩张，过去100年该物种分布的变化可能是由于气候变化造成的。在预测的未来气候变化下，Aegeria将有可能将其活动范围大幅向北移动。按照目前的扩张速度，这个物种可能会在未来50年或更长时间内占领英国所有新的气候适宜的栖息地。然而，栖息地的碎片化会影响定植，Mle表明，栖息地的可用性可能限制了该物种在英国北部边缘的范围扩张。这些滞后效应可能在居住在更分散的景观中流动性较差的物种中更为明显，并突出了栖息地分布在预测物种对未来气候变化的反应方面的关键作用。
Evidence of anthropogenic global climate change is accumulating, but its potential consequences for insect distributions have received little attention. We use a 'climate response surface' model to investigate distribution changes at the northern margin of the speckled wood butterfly Para, ge aegeria. We relate its current European distribution to a combination of three bioclimatic variables. We document that P. aegeria has expanded its northern margin substantially since 1940, that changes in this species) distribution over the past 100 years are likely to have been due to climate change, and that I? aegeria will have the potential to shift its range margin substantially northwards under predicted future climate change. At current rates of expansion, this species could potentially colonize all newly available climatically suitable habitat in the UK over the nest 50 years or more. However, fragmentation of habitats can affect colonization, and Mle show that availability of habitat may be constraining range expansion of this species at its northern margin in the UK. These lag effects may be even more pronounced in less-mobile species inhabiting more fragmented landscapes, and highlight how habitat distribution will be crucial in predicting species' responses to future climate change.