Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome
Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1086616
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发表时间：
2003-06-20
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Murray, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lipsitch, M;Cohen, T;Murray, M
严重的急性呼吸综合症（SARS）是最近描述的人类疾病，在过去6个月中广泛传播。通过使用来自新加坡的详细流行病学数据和其他环境的流行曲线，我们估计了在没有干预措施的情况下SARS的生殖数，并且在存在控制工作的情况下。我们估计，SARS的单一传染病病例将在尚未达成控制措施的人群中感染大约三个次要病例。预计将减少传播的公共卫生努力将对减少流行病的规模产生重大影响。
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described illness of humans that has spread widely over the past 6 months. With the use of detailed epidemiologic data from Singapore and epidemic curves from other settings, we estimated the reproductive number for SARS in the absence of interventions and in the presence of control efforts. We estimate that a single infectious case of SARS will infect about three secondary cases in a population that has not yet instituted control measures. Public-health efforts to reduce transmission are expected to have a substantial impact on reducing the size of the epidemic.