Influenza-Associated Excess Mortality in South Korea.
Influenza-Associated Excess Mortality in South Korea.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2015.09.028
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Cowling BJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Park M;Wu P;Goldstein E;Joo Kim W;Cowling BJ
确定流感对健康的影响对于校准公共卫生措施非常重要。本研究的目的是估算 2003 年至 2013 年韩国与流感相关的超额死亡率。作者于 2014 年构建了多重线性回归模型，根据 2003 年至 2013 年收集的流感病毒每周监测数据，按年龄、地区和死因对每周死亡率进行分层。使用拟合模型的预测死亡率与每种毒株的流感协变量设置为 0 的预测死亡率之间的差异来估计超额死亡率。在研究期间，流感与每年平均 2,900 例超额死亡相关。流感对老年人死亡率的影响明显更高；每10万人中总体全因超额年死亡率为5.97（95% CI=4.89, 7.19），而65岁以上成年人为46.98（95% CI=36.40, 55.82）。每年的变化也很大，从2009-2010年的2.04到2011-2012年的18.76。流感对韩国死亡率的影响很大，尤其是老年人和农村人口。可能需要更全面的研究来估计流感的全面影响。
It is important to determine the health impact of influenza in order to calibrate public health measures. The objective of this study was to estimate excess mortality associated with influenza in Korea in 2003–2013. The authors constructed multiple linear regression models in 2014 with weekly mortality rates stratified by age, region, and cause of death against weekly surveillance data on influenza virus collected in 2003–2013. Excess mortality rates were estimated using the difference between predicted mortality rates from the fitted model versus predicted mortality rates with the influenza covariate for each strain set to 0. During the study period, influenza was associated with an average of 2,900 excess deaths per year. The impact of influenza on mortality was significantly higher in older people; the overall all-cause excess annual mortality rate per 100,000 people was 5.97 (95% CI=4.89, 7.19), whereas it was 46.98 (95% CI=36.40, 55.82) for adults aged ≥65 years. It also greatly varied from year to year, ranging from 2.04 in 2009–2010 to 18.76 in 2011–2012. The impact of influenza on mortality in Korea is substantial, particularly among the elderly and the rural population. More-comprehensive studies may be needed to estimate the full impact of influenza.