On the shape of the probability weighting function
On the shape of the probability weighting function
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DOI：
10.1006/cogp.1998.0710
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发表时间：
1999-02-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Wu, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gonzalez, R;Wu, G
经验研究表明，决策者通常不会线性处理概率。相反，人们倾向于超重的小概率和体重不足的概率。在风险下的决策制定中建模这种扭曲的一种方法是通过概率加权功能。我们提出了一个非参数估计程序，用于评估个人受试者水平上的概率加权函数和价值函数。收益领域中的证据支持一个两参数加权函数，其中每个参数都得到一种心理解释：一个参数衡量决策者如何区分概率，而其他参数可以衡量决策者对赌博的有吸引力。这些发现与越来越多的经验和理论工作的体系一致，试图为概率加权功能建立心理理由。 （c）1999学术出版社。
Empirical studies have shown that decision makers do not usually treat probabilities linearly. Instead, people tend to overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities. One way to model such distortions in decision making under risk is through a probability weighting function. We present a nonparametric estimation procedure for assessing the probability weighting function and value function at the level of the individual subject. The evidence in the domain of gains supports a two-parameter weighting function, where each parameter is given a psychological interpretation: one parameter measures how the decision maker discriminates probabilities, and the other parameter measures how attractive the decision maker views gambling. These findings are consistent with a growing body of empirical and theoretical work attempting to establish a psychological rationale for the probability weighting function. (C) 1999 Academic Press.