Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020
Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa through 1 June 2020
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.18.2000543
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发表时间：
2020-05-07
期刊：
影响因子：
19
通讯作者：
Pulliam, Juliet R. C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pearson, Carl A. B.;Van Schalkwyk, Cari;Pulliam, Juliet R. C.
对于在2020年3月23日前已报告COVID-19病例的45个非洲国家/地区，我们估计报告1，000和10，000例病例的日期。假设早期的疫情趋势没有干预措施，到2020年4月底，这45个国家的确诊病例都可能超过1,000例，大多数在几周后超过1万例。
For 45 African countries/territories already reporting COVID-19 cases before 23 March 2020, we estimate the dates of reporting 1,000 and 10,000 cases. Assuming early epidemic trends without interventions, all 45 were likely to exceed 1,000 confirmed cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10,000 a few weeks later.