Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM
Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM
复制标题
利用区域气候模式CCLM分析中国未来干旱特征
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-017-3623-z
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Fischer, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Jinlong;Zhai, Jianqing;Fischer, Thomas
本文利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）分析了中国未来干旱的强度、面积和持续时间。利用SPI和SPEI评价区域气候模式COSMO-CLM（CCLM）对干旱特征的模拟能力。根据三种不同的浓度路径（RCP），分析了2016-2050年期间未来干旱事件的预测强度和持续时间。应用强度-面积-持续时间方法对模拟和预测的干旱事件进行了分析。结果表明，CCLM对中国西北地区干旱的平均特征有较强的模拟能力，但对西北地区干旱的区域差异性模拟能力较差，主要表现为西北地区干旱事件多、持续时间短。在未来的2016-2050年期间，预计中国将出现更严重的干旱状况。中国各地的蒸散量增加，而降水量减少是明显的，在南方河流流域。蒸散量的增加对北方流域和南方流域未来干旱的变化起着重要作用。在RCP2.6下，预计中国西南和东南地区的干旱事件持续时间更长，频率更高。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5下，预计沿着中国西南至东北的干燥带将继续趋向于更干燥的条件。预计西南部河流流域将发生更频繁、持续时间更长的干旱事件。对于所有未来的干旱，预计其范围会更大，特别是对于持续时间较长的干旱。预测的长期干旱事件将比基线期发生得更频繁、更严重，其中心位置可能会向中国东南部转移。本研究结果可为区域和局地干旱适应措施的启动和加强提供参考。
In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016–2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016–2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at regional and local scale, especially in the south of China.