Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin
Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin
复制标题
气候变化对恒河流域水资源开发的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Sadoff
中科院分区：
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作者：
M. Jeuland;N. Harshadeep;J. Escurra;D. Blackmore;C. Sadoff
作为世界银行恒河流域战略评估的一部分，本文首次对气候变化对恒河系统水文和生产的潜在影响进行了全流域评估。一系列的建模工作、气候预估的缩减、水平衡计算、水文模拟和经济优化为评估提供了信息。这组作者发现，从政府间气候变化专门委员会认可的16个环流模型中获得的整个流域的降水预测是高度可变的，并且导致恒河主干及其支流的平均流量预测存在相当大的差异。尽管对未来流量的预测存在不确定性，但是，除了可能在支流或次集水区水平上，它们并没有超出该盆地自然变化的范围。这组作者还发现，与尼泊尔23座大型水坝相关的水电潜力在各种气候模型中仍然很高，这主要是因为即使在干旱情况下，支流河流的年流量也大大超过了这些项目的储存能力。这些基础设施提供的额外储存和流量平滑转化为旱季水的可用性增加，但这些水在恒河平原的灌溉目的和在气候变化下向孟加拉国增加低流量的相对价值尚不清楚。
This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank’s Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts, downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization, inform the assessment. The authors find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. The authors also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.