A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium
A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-012-1328-x
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Briffa, Keith R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cooper, Richard J.;Melvin, Thomas M.;Briffa, Keith R.
我们提出了一个每年解决重建的春夏降水变率在东英吉利，英国（52- 53 A度N，0-2A度E）的AD 900-2009年期间。一个连续的区域网络723生活（公元1590-2009年）和历史（公元781-1790年）橡树（栎属）。环宽系列已建成，并显示出显着的敏感性，在3月至7月的季节降水变率。一个连贯的共同的增长信号的存在表明，在整个东安格利亚橡树生长，包含近十年的非周期性变化的证据，在整个上个千年的降水。正相关关系建立在橡树生长和降水量的变化在西北欧的一个大区域，虽然气候增长的关系出现时间海侵与相关性显着减弱，在世纪初。检查橡树生长，降水和北大西洋涛动（NAO）之间的关系，没有证据表明，NAO在控制降水或树木生长在这一地区发挥任何重要作用。使用区域曲线标准化保存证据的低频增长变异的东安格利亚橡树年表，我们产生了一个千年的长度重建，能够解释32-35%的年度到十年的区域尺度降水量的变化在1901年至2009年。全长重建表明，在公元900-1100年和大约1800年的统计学显着异常干旱条件。一个明显的延长潮湿的阶段估计为12和13世纪，而降水波动之间的潮湿和干燥的阶段在近百年的时间尺度在整个14至17世纪。重建的21世纪高于平均的降水量与17世纪的重现降水量相当。这里重建的主要估计湿和干阶段出现在很大程度上与一个独立的树木年轮重建英格兰中南部。
We present an annually resolved reconstruction of spring-summer precipitation variability in East Anglia, UK (52-53A degrees N, 0-2A degrees E) for the period AD 900-2009. A continuous regional network of 723 living (AD 1590-2009) and historical (AD 781-1790) oak (Quercus sp.) ring-width series has been constructed and shown to display significant sensitivity to precipitation variability during the March-July season. The existence of a coherent common growth signal is demonstrated in oaks growing across East Anglia, containing evidence of near-decadal aperiodic variability in precipitation throughout the last millennium. Positive correlations are established between oak growth and precipitation variability across a large region of northwest Europe, although climate-growth relationships appear time transgressive with correlations significantly weakening during the early twentieth century. Examination of the relationship between oak growth, precipitation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), reveals no evidence that the NAO plays any significant role in the control of precipitation or tree growth in this region. Using Regional Curve Standardisation to preserve evidence of low-frequency growth variability in the East Anglian oak chronology, we produce a millennial length reconstruction that is capable of explaining 32-35% of annual-to-decadal regional-scale precipitation variance during 1901-2009. The full length reconstruction indicates statistically significant anomalous dry conditions during AD 900-1100 and circa-1800. An apparent prolonged wetter phase is estimated for the twelfth and thirteen centuries, whilst precipitation fluctuates between wetter and drier phases at near centennial timescales throughout the fourteenth to seventeenth centuries. Above average precipitation reconstructed for the twenty-first century is comparable with that reproduced for the 1600s. The main estimated wet and dry phases reconstructed here appear largely coherent with an independent tree-ring reconstruction for southern-central England.