Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138226
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Luo, Bin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma, Yueling;Zhao, Yadong;Luo, Bin
气象参数是影响传染性疾病的重要因素，如严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）和流感。这项研究旨在探索2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）死亡与天气参数之间的关系。在这项研究中，我们收集了2020年1月20日至2020年2月29日期间中国武汉的每日COVID-19死亡人数、气象参数和空气污染物数据。应用广义加性模型探讨了温度、湿度和昼夜温差对COVID-19日死亡人数的影响。在研究期间，武汉共有2299例COVID-19死亡病例。昼夜温差与COVID-19每日死亡人数呈正相关（r = 0.44），但与相对湿度呈负相关（r = -0.32）。此外，昼夜温差增加一个单位仅与滞后3中COVID-19死亡增加2.92%（95%CI：0.61%，5.28%）相关。然而，在滞后3和滞后5中，温度和绝对湿度增加1个单位均与COVID-19死亡减少相关，滞后3中的降幅最大[-7.50%（95%CI：-10.99%，-3.88%）和-11.41%（95%CI：-19.68%，-2.29%）]。总之，这项研究表明，温度变化和湿度也可能是影响COVID-19死亡率的重要因素。(C)2020爱思唯尔B. V.保留所有权利。
Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = -0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [-7.50% (95% CI: -10.99%,-3.88%) and -11.41% (95% CI: -19.68%,-2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.