Spatiotemporal variability of drought and the potential climatological driving factors in the Liao River basin
Spatiotemporal variability of drought and the potential climatological driving factors in the Liao River basin
复制标题
辽河流域干旱时空变化特征及潜在气候驱动因素
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.8104
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Yu, Ruihong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu, Xingcai;Xu, Zongxue;Yu, Ruihong
本研究基于标准化降水指数（SPI）研究了辽河流域（LRB）干旱的时空特征。 SPI 的高自相关性似乎适合干旱预测。在过去的几十年里，LRB 地区的干旱变得更加频繁、广泛和严重。通过调查 SPI 与西太平洋副热带高压 (WPSH)、东亚夏季风 (EASM) 和厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 指数等环流的关系，分析了影响该流域干旱的主要因素。获得了 WPSH 指数和 SPI 之间的不同相关模式。研究区西部和中部地区副高与SPI的面积、强度呈显着正相关，东部呈负相关。西副高西经脊线与SPI的相关性呈现相反的规律。相应的滞后相关主要是副高与SPI的面积、强度呈正相关，副高西经脊线与SPI呈负相关。东亚夏季风主要与LRB东部地区的干旱呈负相关。 ENSO与SPI显着正相关主要集中在东部地区，负相关主要集中在盆地西部。还考察了它们之间的滞后相关性（滞后1至12个月），结果表明，从盆地西部到中心的广阔区域，负相关显着，而随着滞后的增加，正相关性逐渐减弱。基于上述分析，讨论了利用大气环流模型（GCM）进行干旱预测的可能性。版权所有 © 2011 约翰·威利父子有限公司
Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Liao River basin (LRB) are investigated in this study. High autocorrelation in SPI seems to lend itself to drought prediction. Drought is becoming more frequent, widespread, and severe in the LRB during the past several decades. Major factors affecting drought in this basin are analysed by investigating relationship between SPI and several circulations including western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices. Different correlation patterns between WPSH indices and SPI are obtained. Several significant positive correlations between the area, intensity of WPSH and SPI are observed in the west and the centre of the study area, while negative correlations are observed in the east. Reverse patterns are observed in the correlation between the ridge of westward longitude of WPSH and SPI. Corresponding lag‐correlation is dominated by positive correlations between the area, intensity of WPSH and SPI, and by negative correlation between the ridge of westward longitude of WPSH and SPI. EASM is mainly negative related with drought in the east of the LRB. Significant positive correlation between ENSO and SPI is mainly located in the east while negative correlation is located in west of the basin. Lag‐correlation (with lags of 1 to 12 months) between them is also investigated and results show that significant negative correlation is located in a broad area extending from the west to the centre of the basin, while less positive correlation is observed with the increase of lags. The possibility of employing general circulation models (GCMs) for drought prediction is discussed based on the above analyses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.