Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project
Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwn266
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发表时间：
2008-12-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Michelozzi, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Analitis, A.;Katsouyanni, K.;Michelozzi, P.
由于观测到和预测的气候变化，与天气相关的健康影响重新引起了人们的兴趣。作者研究了寒冷天气对 15 个欧洲城市死亡率的短期影响。利用 1990 年至 2000 年的数据评估了寒冷季节（10 月至 3 月）最低表观温度对特定原因和特定年龄每日死亡率的影响。对于特定城市的分析，作者使用泊松回归和分布式滞后模型来控制潜在的混杂因素。元回归模型总结了结果并探讨了异质性。气温每降低 1 摄氏度，每日自然死亡总数就会增加 1.35%（95% 置信区间 (CI)：1.16,1.53），增加 1.72%（95% CI：1.44、2.01）、3.30%（95% CI：2.61、3.99）和 1.25%（95% CI：2.61、3.99）。 0.77、1.73）心血管、呼吸系统和脑血管死亡分别增加。年龄较大的群体的增幅更大。研究发现，寒冷的影响在较温暖的（南方）城市更大，并持续长达 23 天，没有证据表明死亡人数减少。与寒冷相关的死亡是整个欧洲的一个重要公共卫生问题。由于最近人们对热浪事件的关注，公共卫生当局不应低估它。
Weather-related health effects have attracted renewed interest because of the observed and predicted climate change. The authors studied the short-term effects of cold weather on mortality in 15 European cities. The effects of minimum apparent temperature on cause- and age-specific daily mortality were assessed for the cold season (October-March) by using data from 1990-2000. For city-specific analysis, the authors used Poisson regression and distributed lag models, controlling for potential confounders. Meta-regression models summarized the results and explored heterogeneity. A 1 degrees C decrease in temperature was associated with a 1.35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16,1.53) increase in the daily number of total natural deaths and a 1.72% (95% CI: 1.44, 2.01), 3.30% (95% CI: 2.61, 3.99), and 1.25% (95% CI: 0.77, 1.73) increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. The increase was greater for the older age groups. The cold effect was found to be greater in warmer (southern) cities and persisted up to 23 days, with no evidence of mortality displacement. Cold-related mortality is an important public health problem across Europe. It should not be underestimated by public health authorities because of the recent focus on heat-wave episodes.