Extreme wave climate changes in Central-South America
Extreme wave climate changes in Central-South America
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0712-9
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发表时间：
2013-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
C. Izaguirre;F. Méndez;A. Espejo;I. Losada;B. Reguero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Izaguirre;F. Méndez;A. Espejo;I. Losada;B. Reguero
分析了中南美洲大陆极端波动气候的时空变异性。这项研究评估了1980-2008年期间极端有效波高(SWH)强度的全年变化，使用了NCEP/NCAR再分析强制执行的校准的长期波再分析数据库。应用了基于月最大值的非平稳极值模型，并采用了一种新的长期趋势方法。结果表明，太平洋海盆在所有季节都有一个共同的积极趋势，苏里南和巴西北部大西洋边界地区的趋势模式显著下降(3-4-5月达到−150万厘米/年)。火地岛和福克兰群岛的极端波高在南半球夏季(12-1-2月)有较高的增长，达到6.5厘米/年(这意味着研究的28年中为1.82厘米/年)。此外，为了与同化资料时期(1980-2008年)进行比较，对1948-2008年的完整再分析时段进行了分析，结果显示了一些差异，特别是在大西洋盆地。
The spatial and temporal variability of extreme wave climate along the Central-South American continent is analyzed. The study evaluates changes in the intensity of extreme significant wave height (SWH) throughout the year over the 1980–2008 period, using a calibrated long-term wave reanalysis database forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. A non-stationary extreme value model, based on monthly maxima with a new approach for long-term trends, has been applied. Results show a common positive trend in the Pacific basin throughout all seasons and a significant decreasing trend pattern in the area of Surinam and north of Brazil, on the Atlantic border (up to −1.5 cm/year in March–April–May). A higher increase of the extreme wave heights is found in the austral summer (December–January–February) at Tierra de Fuego and the Falkland Islands, reaching 6.5 cm/year (which means 1.82 m for the 28 years studied). Furthermore, the complete reanalysis period (1948–2008) is analyzed in order to compare results with the assimilation data period (1980–2008), resulting in some discrepancies, especially in the Atlantic basin.