Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: A review
Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: A review
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DOI：
10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103324
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
12.1
通讯作者：
J. Walsh;T. Ballinger;E. Euskirchen;Edward Hanna;J. Mård;J. Overland;H. Tangen;T. Vihma;T. Vihma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Walsh;T. Ballinger;E. Euskirchen;Edward Hanna;J. Mård;J. Overland;H. Tangen;T. Vihma;T. Vihma
气候变化对生态系统、野生动物和人类的最大影响往往来自极端事件，而不是气候手段的变化。包括北极在内的北部高纬度地区经历了各种与气候相关的极端事件，但很少有人尝试综合该地区极端事件的信息。本综述调查了北部高纬度地区各种类型的极端事件，解决了（1）基于对近期历史数据分析的变化和变化的证据，以及（2）主要基于利用全球气候模型的研究预测的变化。极端天气气候事件调查包括气温、降水、降雪、冻雨、大气阻塞、气旋、大风等。该调查还包括冰冻圈和生物物理影响：海冰快速流失事件、格陵兰冰盖融化、洪水、干旱、野火、海岸侵蚀、陆地生态系统和海洋生态系统。温度和海冰位于变化证据范围和对未来变化的信心的高端，而干旱、洪水和气旋则位于低端。根据本次审查确定的研究重点包括更多地使用高分辨率模型和增强针对极端事件的观测系统。还需要进一步研究高纬度极端事件的归因、对生态系统和人类的影响以及可能触发的阈值或临界点。
The greatest impacts of climate change on ecosystems, wildlife and humans often arise from extreme events rather than changes in climatic means. Northern high latitudes, including the Arctic, experience a variety of climate-related extreme events, yet there has been little attempt to synthesize information on extreme events in this region. This review surveys work on various types of extreme events in northern high latitudes, addressing (1) the evidence for variations and changes based on analyses of recent historical data and (2) projected changes based primarily on studies utilizing global climate models. The survey of extreme weather and climate events includes temperature, precipitation, snow, freezing rain, atmospheric blocking, cyclones, and wind. The survey also includes cryospheric and biophysical impacts: sea ice rapid loss events, Greenland Ice Sheet melt, floods, drought, wildfire, coastal erosion, terrestrial ecosystems, and marine ecosystems. Temperature and sea ice rank at the high end of the spectra of evidence for change and confidence in future change, while drought, flooding and cyclones rank at the lower end. Research priorities identified on the basis of this review include greater use of high-resolution models and observing system enhancements that target extreme events. There is also a need for further work on attribution, impacts on ecosystems and humans, and thresholds or tipping points that may be triggered by extreme events in high latitudes.