Forecasting peak system load using a combined time series and econometric model
Forecasting peak system load using a combined time series and econometric model
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DOI：
10.1016/0306-2619(78)90004-1
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发表时间：
1978-07
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
N. Uri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Uri
对未来高峰需求的估计是电力行业规划的基础。由于准确预测的关键性质，预测方法正在不断改进。在本文中，通过使用组合Box-Jenkins/计量经济学方法来预测特定公用事业的每月峰值系统负荷，进一步进行了改进。通过考虑Box-Jenkins时间序列模型中经济和天气相关变量的变化，得到了改进的预报。
Estimates of peak demand requirements in the future constitute the foundation for planning in the electrical energy industry. Because of the critical nature of accurate forecasts, forecasting methodology is continually being refined. In this paper a further refinement is made by using a combined Box-Jenkins/econometric approach to forecast monthly peak system load for a specific utility. By taking account of changes in economic and weather related variables in a Box-Jenkins time series model, improved forecasts are obtained.