Public Policy Simulation Approach: its Applications and Prospects
Public Policy Simulation Approach: its Applications and Prospects
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
Xu Lei
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作者：
Xu Lei
本文探讨了一种ABM模拟方法及其在公共政策中的应用和前景。关于社会科学知识主张的争论尚未得到解决。随着认识论方法的不断发展，社会模拟研究有了自己的“形态-具体”定位，而ABM模拟方法在公共政策研究中无疑占有重要地位。公共政策过程的复杂性制约了传统研究方法的有效性。基于场景的公共政策系统分析和基于机制的主体分析使ABM方法突破了传统的研究方法。凭借科学的建模技术、严谨的测试环节、政策结果的三维呈现和群体决策平台，ABM仿真方法在公共政策领域提供了独特的科学和人文的令人兴奋的前景。
This paper explores an ABM simulation approach and its applications and prospects in public policy.The debate on knowledge claims of social sciences is still unsolved.With the continuum of epistemological approaches,social simulation studies take their own "nomothetic-idiographic" position,while no doubt the ABM simulation approach in public policy occupies an important position.The complexity of the process of public policy restricts the effectiveness of traditional research methods.The scenario-based system analysis of public policy systems and mechanisms-based analysis of agents make the ABM approach break through the traditional research methods.With scientific modeling technology,rigorous testing session,3D presentation of policy outcomes,and group decision making platform,the ABM simulation approach provides unique scientific and humane exciting prospects in public policy area.