Dynamic compartmental model of trends in Australian drug use.
Dynamic compartmental model of trends in Australian drug use.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10729-007-9012-0
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发表时间：
2007-06-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Ritter, Alison
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caulkins, Jonathan P;Dietze, Paul;Ritter, Alison
澳大利亚非法药物使用趋势的五州区室模型使用多种来源的数据进行参数化。该模型再现了历史流行率，并支持假设分析，即过去的药物升级和停止的轨迹持续存在。对于固定起爆，系统具有唯一的稳定平衡。主要的定性调查结果是，即使一些使用者迅速升级，定期注射毒品的使用仍然以相当大的惯性和延迟来适应发病率的变化。这具有重要的政策影响，例如，关于减少与毒品有关的社会成本的时机，这些社会成本是由减少每名注射使用者的社会成本的干预措施与减少吸毒开始的干预措施产生的。
A five-state compartment model of trends in illicit drug use in Australia is parameterized using data from multiple sources. The model reproduces historical prevalence and supports what-if analyses under the assumption that past trajectories of drug escalation and desistance persist. For fixed initiation, the system has a unique stable equilibrium. The chief qualitative finding is that even though some users escalate rapidly, regular injection drug use still adjusts to changes in incidence with considerable inertia and delay. This has important policy implications, e.g., concerning the timing of reductions in drug-related social cost generated by interventions that reduce the social cost per injection user versus those that cut drug initiation.