Spatio-temporal dynamics of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) on the Northeast US shelf
Spatio-temporal dynamics of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) on the Northeast US shelf
复制标题
美国东北部大陆架夏季比目鱼（Paralichthys denatus）的时空动态
DOI：
10.1016/j.fishres.2019.03.006
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
J. Thorson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Charles T Perretti;J. Thorson
夏比目鱼(Paralichthys Dentatus)是美国东北部大陆架上一种重要的经济和生态鱼类。有证据表明，它们的空间分布随着时间的推移而发生了变化。然而，关于这种转变的各种潜在驱动因素的重要性，存在相互矛盾的报道。在这里，我们调查种群是否发生了变化，以及这在多大程度上可以归因于丰度、大小结构、环境变量和捕捞的变化。为此，我们使用了一个向量自回归时空模型，该模型结合了过去41年来两次季节性底拖网调查的数据，这两次调查一起跨越了美国东北部大陆架的近岸和近海。我们发现，夏季比目鱼的分布在春季和秋季都向北和向东移动。在新兵和产卵者身上都可以观察到这种转变，新兵向北迁移的速度比产卵者快，这表明产卵者丰度的增加可能并不是推动新兵迁移的原因。我们发现，只有一小部分分布的可变性可以归因于丰度、捕捞或环境协变量的变化。相反，这种转变在很大程度上归因于不明因素。
Summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus)are an economically and ecologically important fish on the Northeast U.S. shelf. There is evidence that their spatial distribution has shifted over time. However, there are conflicting reports on the importance of various potential drivers of the shift. Here, we investigate whether the stock has shifted and the extent to which this can be attributed to changes in abundance, size-structure, environmental variables, and fishing. We do so using a vector-autoregressive spatio-temporal model that incorporates data from two seasonal bottom trawl surveys that together span the nearshore and offshore Northeast US shelf over the past 41 years. We find that the summer flounder distribution has shifted north and east in both the spring and fall. The shift is observed in both recruits and spawners, with recruits shifting northward faster than spawners, suggesting that increased spawner abundance may not be driving the shift in recruits. We find that only a small portion of the variability in distribution can be attributed to changes in abundance, fishing, or environmental covariates. Instead, the shift is most strongly attributed to unidentified factors.