Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel
Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel
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成本渠道不确定的最优货币政策
DOI：
10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00237.x
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Peter Tillmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peter Tillmann
货币传导的成本渠道描述了利率对企业成本的供给方影响。以前的研究发现，这种影响随着时间的推移和国家的不同而不同。此外，金融摩擦的周期性可能会扩大成本渠道。本文推导了在成本渠道真实规模不确定的情况下的最优货币政策。在最小-最大方法中，中央银行通过泰勒规则得出要实施的最优政策计划。结果表明，成本渠道的不确定性导致衰减的利率设置行为。在这方面，布雷纳德（Brainard，1967）在面对不确定性时采取谨慎政策的原则在贝叶斯和最小-最大框架中仍然成立。版权所有（c）2009俄亥俄州州立大学。
The cost channel of monetary transmission describes a supply-side effect of interest rates on firms' costs. Previous research has found this effect to vary, both over time and across countries. Moreover, the cyclical nature of financial frictions is likely to amplify the cost channel. This paper derives optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the true size of the cost channel. In a min-max approach, the central bank derives an optimal policy plan to be implemented by a Taylor rule. It is shown that uncertainty about the cost channel leads to an attenuated interest rate setting behavior. In this respect, the Brainard (1967) principle of cautious policy in the face of uncertainty continues to hold in both a Bayesian and a min-max framework. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.