Covid-19 mortality is negatively associated with test number and government effectiveness
Covid-19 mortality is negatively associated with test number and government effectiveness
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-68862-x
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发表时间：
2020-07-24
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wu, Chun-Ying
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liang, Li-Lin;Tseng, Ching-Hung;Wu, Chun-Ying
2019冠状病毒病大流行的一个核心问题是，为什么各国的2019冠状病毒病死亡率差异如此之大。本研究旨在调查与COVID-19死亡率跨国差异相关的因素。2019冠状病毒病死亡率计算为每100例2019冠状病毒病病例的死亡人数。为了确定与Covid-19死亡率相关的因素，对包括169个国家的横截面数据集进行了线性回归。我们从Worldometer网站、全球治理指标、世界发展指标和物流绩效指标数据库中检索数据。新冠肺炎死亡率与每百人新冠肺炎检测次数（RR = 0.92，P = 0.001）、政府效能评分（RR = 0.96，P = 0.017）和医院床位数（RR = 0.85，P < 0.001）呈负相关。新冠肺炎死亡率与65岁及以上人口比例（RR = 1.12，P < 0.001）和交通基础设施质量评分（RR = 1.08，P = 0.002）呈正相关。此外，在低收入国家和政府效率评分较低、人口较年轻和医院床位较少的国家，新冠肺炎死亡率与检测次数之间的负相关性更强。预测死亡率与观察死亡率高度相关（r = 0.77; P < 0.001）。增加COVID-19检测、提高政府效率和增加医院床位可能有可能降低COVID-19死亡率。
A question central to the Covid-19 pandemic is why the Covid-19 mortality rate varies so greatly across countries. This study aims to investigate factors associated with cross-country variation in Covid-19 mortality. Covid-19 mortality rate was calculated as number of deaths per 100 Covid-19 cases. To identify factors associated with Covid-19 mortality rate, linear regressions were applied to a cross-sectional dataset comprising 169 countries. We retrieved data from the Worldometer website, the Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Development Indicators, and Logistics Performance Indicators databases. Covid-19 mortality rate was negatively associated with Covid-19 test number per 100 people (RR = 0.92, P = 0.001), government effectiveness score (RR = 0.96, P = 0.017), and number of hospital beds (RR = 0.85, P < 0.001). Covid-19 mortality rate was positively associated with proportion of population aged 65 or older (RR = 1.12, P < 0.001) and transport infrastructure quality score (RR = 1.08, P = 0.002). Furthermore, the negative association between Covid-19 mortality and test number was stronger among low-income countries and countries with lower government effectiveness scores, younger populations and fewer hospital beds. Predicted mortality rates were highly associated with observed mortality rates (r = 0.77; P < 0.001). Increasing Covid-19 testing, improving government effectiveness and increasing hospital beds may have the potential to attenuate Covid-19 mortality.