When Do We Start? Pension Reform in Ageing Japan
When Do We Start? Pension Reform in Ageing Japan
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我们什么时候开始？
DOI：
10.1111/jere.12135
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Kitao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Kitao
日本正在经历快速而严重的人口老龄化。40年来，生育率一直低于更替水平，自1950年代以来，预期寿命增加了30岁。2004年的养老金改革预计将降低替代率，但调整何时完成以及是否完成还有很大的不确定性。65岁的正常退休年龄将是主要发达国家中最低的。本文模拟了养老金改革，在30年的时间内将替代率降低20%，并逐步提高退休年龄3年。我们考虑了三种不同的情况，即在2020年、2030年和2040年分别启动改革并让整合开始。延迟将抑制经济活动，使产出下降高达4%，并使税收负担增加超过总消费的8个百分点。拖延改革也意味着几代人之间的重大权衡，并使后代的福利在消费当量方面恶化多达3%。
Japan is going through rapid and significant demographic aging. Fertility rates have been below replacement level for four decades, and life expectancy has increased by 30 years since the 1950s. The pension reform of 2004 is expected to reduce the replacement rate, but there is much uncertainty as to when and whether the adjustment will be complete. The normal retirement age of 65 will be the lowest among major developed countries. This paper simulates pension reform to reduce the replacement rate by 20% and raise the retirement age by three years gradually over a 30-year period. We consider three scenarios that differ in timing to initiate reform and let the consolidation start in 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively. A delay would suppress economic activities, lowering output by up to 4% and raising the tax burden by more than eight percentage points of total consumption. Delaying reform also implies a major tradeoff across generations and deteriorates the welfare of future generations by up to 3% in consumption equivalence.