A verified realization of a Dempster–Shafer based fault tree analysis
A verified realization of a Dempster–Shafer based fault tree analysis
复制标题
基于 Dempster–Shafer 的故障树分析的验证实现
作者：
G. Rebner;E. Auer;W. Luther
故障树分析是一种基于系统低层部件的信息来确定系统达到不良状态的可能性的方法。然而，传统的方法不能处理不精确或不完整的数据。有许多方法可以解决这个问题。在本文中，我们将考虑基于Dempster-Shafer理论的模型。本文提出的技术的主要优点是使用经过验证的方法(特别是区间分析)以高效和一致的方式处理Dempster-Shafer结构。首先，我们专注于DSI(Dempster-Shafer with Interval)，这是一个最近开发的工具。它是用MatLab编写的，并作为基于Dempster-Shafer的故障树分析的新附加模块的基础。这个新的附加组件将在我们的第二部分中详细描述。在这里，我们使用基于算术平均的混合，通过故障树传播具有不确定性的专家陈述。此外，我们还介绍了一种基于区间尺度的系统可靠性估计算法的实现，该算法通过新的输入分布得到扩展。
Fault tree analysis is a method to determine the likelihood of a system attaining an undesirable state based on the information about its lower level parts. However, conventional approaches cannot process imprecise or incomplete data. There are a number of ways to solve this problem. In this paper, we will consider the one that is based on the Dempster–Shafer theory. The major advantage of the techniques proposed here is the use of verified methods (in particular, interval analysis) to handle Dempster–Shafer structures in an efficient and consistent way. First, we concentrate on DSI (Dempster–Shafer with intervals), a recently developed tool. It is written in MATLAB and serves as a basis for a new add-on for Dempster–Shafer based fault tree analysis. This new add-on will be described in detail in the second part of our paper. Here, we propagate experts’ statements with uncertainties through fault trees, using mixing based on arithmetic averaging. Furthermore, we introduce an implementation of the interval scale based algorithm for estimating system reliability, extended by new input distributions.