Environmental and social determinants of human risk during a West Nile virus outbreak in the greater Chicago area, 2002.
Environmental and social determinants of human risk during a West Nile virus outbreak in the greater Chicago area, 2002.
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-072x-3-8
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发表时间：
2004-04-20
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Kitron U
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ruiz MO;Tedesco C;McTighe TJ;Austin C;Kitron U
2002年在芝加哥及其周边地区爆发的西尼罗河病毒包括该区域内由该病毒引起的680多例人类疾病。两个界定明确的地区的病例明显聚集，表明存在特定的环境和社会因素，增加了这些地区感染西尼罗河病毒和/或患病的风险。这项调查试图建立一个基于经验的模型来解释这些因素，并评估它们在解释可能导致这种模式的可能过程中的重要性。病例高发的聚集型模式具有统计学意义。被发现的重要风险因素包括植被的存在、人口的年龄、收入和种族、到西尼罗河病毒阳性死鸟标本的距离、住房年龄、蚊子减少和地质因素。不同灭蚊措施的效果尤其显著。约53%的西尼罗河病毒群的位置变化是由这些因素解释的。开发的模型表明，即使在控制关键环境因素的情况下，不同的蚊子减少努力也是特别重要的风险因素。在这项生态学研究中，人类种群特征在风险中扮演着可衡量的角色，但需要进一步的研究才能将因果关系与风险联系起来。对病例发病率的空间集群的分析表明，这种方法比对所有个别病例的分析更能深入了解与西尼罗河病毒相关的不同风险因素的焦点性质。
The outbreak of West Nile Virus (WNV) in and around Chicago in 2002 included over 680 cases of human illness caused by the virus within this region. The notable clustering of the cases in two well-defined areas suggests the existence of specific environmental and social factors that increase the risk for WNV infection and/or illness in these locations. This investigation sought to create an empirically based model to account for these factors and to assess their importance in explaining the possible processes that may have led to this pattern. The cluster pattern of high incidence of cases was statistically significant. The risk factors that were found to be important included the presence of vegetation, age, income, and race of the human population, distance to a WNV positive dead bird specimen, age of housing, mosquito abatement and geological factors. The effect of different mosquito abatement efforts was particularly notable. About 53 percent of the variation of the location of WNV clusters was explained by these factors. The models developed indicate that differential mosquito abatement efforts are especially important risk factors, even when controlling for key environmental factors. Human population characteristics play a role in risk that is measurable in this ecological study but would require further research to associate causality with risk. The analysis of spatial clusters of case incidence indicates that this approach provides more insight into the focal nature of differential risk factors that tend to be associated with WNV than an analysis of all individual cases.