Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates
Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates
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DOI：
10.1093/wbro/lkab003
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发表时间：
2021-03-17
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Iqbal, Syedah Aroob
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Azevedo, Joao Pedro;Hasan, Amer;Iqbal, Syedah Aroob
本文件模拟了COVID-19相关学校关闭对学校教育和学习成果的潜在影响。它考虑了四个不同的学校关闭的持续时间和政府部署的任何缓解策略的有效性。该分析使用了174个国家的数据，发现全球学校教育和学习水平将大幅下降。学校关闭可能导致损失0.3至1.1年的教育时间（按质量调整），使学生一生中获得的有效基础教育年数从7.8年减少到6.7至7.5年。仅由于这一流行病的收入冲击，就有近1 100万小学至中学学生可能辍学。如果已经被边缘化的弱势群体，如女孩、少数民族和残疾人，因学校关闭而受到更大的不利影响，排斥和不平等就有可能加剧。目前这批学生的年收入平均可能减少366美元至1,776美元。按现值计算，这相当于一个典型学生一生中收入损失6，680美元至32，397美元。在全球范围内，学校关闭5个月可能会产生现值为10万亿美元的学习损失。根据这一标准，世界可能会损失高达16%的政府对这批学生基础教育的投资。在悲观和非常悲观的情况下，累计损失按现值计算可能高达16万亿至20万亿美元。除非采取严厉的补救行动，否则世界在实现到2030年将学习不良者比例减半的目标方面可能面临重大挫折。
This paper presents simulations of the potential effect of COVID-19-related school closures on schooling and learning outcomes. It considers four scenarios-varying in both the duration of school closures and the effectiveness of any mitigation strategies being deployed by governments. Using data on 174 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall substantially. School closures could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 1.1 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.8 years to between 6.7 and 7.5 years. Close to 11 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, such as girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by school closures. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $366 to $1,776 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,680 and $32,397 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. In the pessimistic and very pessimistic scenarios, cumulative losses could add up to between $16 and $20 trillion in present value terms. Unless drastic remedial action is taken, the world could face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor by 2030.