The parental co-immunization hypothesis: An observational competing risks analysis
The parental co-immunization hypothesis: An observational competing risks analysis
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-39124-2
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发表时间：
2019-02-21
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Schweinzer, Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Portela, Miguel;Schweinzer, Paul
这项研究的主要兴趣是假设与幼儿接触可能有利于父母以后的健康和死亡率（因为他们的免疫系统发生了变化）。为此，我们记录了一组个人特征的关系，包括父母身份和婚姻状况，以及社会经济地位与个人的死因。使用国家统计纵向研究办公室（ONS-LS）提供的新颖而丰富的数据集，该数据集跟踪了英格兰和威尔士沿着1971年，1981年，1991年，2001年和2011年五次人口普查的1%人口，我们的竞争风险分析产生了几个惊人的结果：（1）与无子女的女性相比，有子女的女性死于癌症的风险降低72.5%（对于70岁的无子女女性，这相当于死于癌症的风险为1.3%，而有子女的女性的风险约为1.3x0.275 = 0.4%）。(2)男性在结婚后死于癌症的几率增加了171%（例如，75岁时的基线概率为1.2%）与未婚男性相比。(3)与没有子女的女性相比，有子女的女性死于心脏病的风险仅为34%（相当于65岁时的条件概率为0.3%），（4）死于感染的概率为53%（即，65岁时为0.1%），与无子女女性的风险相比。(5)在同一年龄，已婚男性比未婚男性死于心脏病的预期增加了123%（相当于预期死亡概率为0.7%）。(6)高收入和房屋所有权总是与更高的生存率相关，但不如生孩子。虽然这些结果证明了儿童的存在与死亡率之间的关系，但具体的传播机制仍不清楚，我们无法做出因果关系的断言。
The main interest of this study is the hypothesis that contact with small children may be beneficial for the parents' later health and mortality (because of changes in their immune system). For this purpose, we document the relationship of a set of individual characteristics-including parenthood and marital state-and socioeconomic status with an individual's cause of death. Using a novel and rich data set made available by the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS), which follows 1% of the population of England and Wales along five census waves 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011, our competing risks analysis yields several striking results: (1) Females with children have a 72.5% reduced risk of dying of cancer compared to childless females (for childless females of age 70, this corresponds to a risk of dying of cancer of 1.3% compared to a risk of about 1.3 x 0.275 = 0.4% for females with children). (2) Males have a 171% increased chance of dying of cancer when they are married (e.g., a baseline probability of 1.2% when 75 year old) compared to unmarried males. (3) Females with children have only a 34% risk of dying of heart disease (corresponding to a conditional probability of 0.3% when aged 65) relative to females without children and (4) a 53% chance of dying of infections (i.e., 0.1% at 65 years of age) compared to the risk for females without children. (5) At the same age, married men have an increased expectation of 123% of dying of heart disease (corresponding to an expected death probability of 0.7%) compared to unmarried men. (6) High income and house ownership is always associated with higher survival but less so than having children. While these results document a relationship between the presence of children and mortality, the specific transmission mechanisms remain unclear and we cannot make causality assertions.