Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the Euro area
Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the Euro area
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DOI：
10.1353/mcb.2006.0038
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发表时间：
2006-04-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Lopez-Salido, J. David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Benigno, Pierpaolo;Lopez-Salido, J. David
在本文中，我们提出了一个欧元区的优化代理模型，以强调跨地区通胀持续性异质性的存在对货币政策设计的影响。我们发现了支持证据，表明欧元区各国的通胀动态存在这种异质性。特别是，基于对欧元区五个主要国家的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的估计，我们发现德国的通胀具有主导的前瞻性成分，而在其他国家组中，通胀表现出显著的惯性(向后看)行为。在这种情况下，我们研究了贸易条件冲击后四种货币政策规则的福利含义：完全最优、最优通胀目标法、HICP目标法和产出缺口稳定化。
In this paper we present an optimizing-agent model for the euro area to emphasize how the existence of heterogencity in inflation persistence across regions matter for the design of monetary policy. We find supporting evidence of the existence of such a heterogencity in inflation dynamics across euro area countries. In particular, based on the estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curves for five major countries of the euro area, we find that inflation in Germany has a dominant forward-looking component, while in the other groups of countries inflation show a significant inertial (backwards looking) behaviour. Under this circumstance, we study the welfare implication of four monetary policy rules following terms-of-trade shocks: fully optimal, optimal inflation targeting, HICP targeting, and output gap stabilization.