Conditions predict heightened Hendra virus spillover risk in horses this winter: actions now can change outcomes
Conditions predict heightened Hendra virus spillover risk in horses this winter: actions now can change outcomes
复制标题
情况预测今年冬天亨德拉病毒在马身上的溢出风险将增加：现在的行动可以改变结果
DOI：
10.1111/avj.12964
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Peel, AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eby, P;Plowright, RK.;McCallum, H;Peel, AJ
目前，全球大量努力的重点是减轻人类 COVID-19 大流行对健康和经济的影响，该流行病可能是由于野生动物源的单一溢出事件而开始的。 1 虽然有关这一初始事件的细节尚不清楚，但 β 冠状病毒的广泛多样性以及与蝙蝠中的 SARS 样冠状病毒的密切相似性表明，蝙蝠是 SARS-CoV-2 病毒祖细胞的原始储存宿主。 1 这次大流行再次强调了了解蝙蝠储存库中病毒出现的驱动因素的必要性——如果我们能够预测导致病毒溢出的条件，那么我们就可以更好地准备减轻其后果。集体的个人行动有能力改变受感染疾病传播的预测结果——正如当前的 COVID-19 大流行所证明的那样。亨德拉病毒从果蝠传播到马的方式并未像 SARS 类冠状病毒那样发展为人类流行病。无论如何，从蝙蝠到马（其症状受到密切监测的大型中间物种）的定期、可检测的溢出的发生提供了获得有用见解的机会。对传播时的环境条件及其在多个事件中的一致性进行纵向研究，可以对导致最初溢出的过程进行详细调查。亨德拉病毒溢出事件的确切时间和频率可能显得有些随机。然而，我们的数据表明，溢出效应的规模是可以预测的，从而可以在疫情爆发之前进行干预。具体而言，与 2011 年和 2017 年一样，最近的情况使我们预测 2020 年冬季代表着亨德拉病毒溢出风险较高的时期。
Vast global efforts are currently focussed on mitigating the health and economic effects of the human COVID-19 pandemic, which likely began due to a single spillover event from a wildlife source. 1 While details surrounding this initial event are unknown, the broad diversity of betacoronaviruses and close similarity to SARS-like coronaviruses in bats suggest that bats are the original reservoir host of the viral progenitor of SARS-CoV-2. 1 This pandemic re-emphasises the need to understand the drivers of viral emergence from bat reservoirs-if we can predict the conditions that precipitate viral spillover, then we can be more prepared to mitigate its consequences. Collective individual actions have the power to change predicted outcomes of infected disease transmission-as is currently being demonstrated in the current COVID-19 pandemic.Hendra virus spillover from flying foxes to horses has not progressed to human epidemics in the same way that SARS-like coronaviruses have. Regardless, the occurrence of regular, detectable spillovers from bats to horses-a large intermediate species whose symptoms are closely monitored-presents opportunities to gain useful insights. Longitudinal studies of the environmental conditions at the time of transmission, and their consistency across multiple events, allow detailed investigations into the processes that drive the initial spillovers. The exact timing and frequency of Hendra virus spillover events can appear somewhat random. However, our data suggest that spillover may be predictable at a scale that enables interventions before outbreaks occur. Specifically, as in 2011 and 2017, recent conditions lead us to predict that winter 2020 represents a period of heightened risk for Hendra virus spillover.