Stochastic post-disaster functionality recovery of community building portfolios I: Modeling
Stochastic post-disaster functionality recovery of community building portfolios I: Modeling
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DOI：
10.1016/j.strusafe.2017.05.002
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Wang, Naiyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Peihui;Wang, Naiyu
了解灾后恢复过程是评估和实现社区复原力的关键一步。然而，作为空间分布系统的社区建设组合的恢复过程本质上是复杂和高度不确定的，取决于社区的机智和社会经济特征，以及许多社区利益攸关方和建筑物业主在恢复的不同阶段作出的各种决定。我们提出了一个基于模拟的建筑组合恢复模型(BPRM)来预测自然场景灾害事件后社区建筑组合的功能恢复时间和恢复轨迹：(1)将单个建筑级别的恢复建模为离散状态、连续时间马尔科夫链(CTMC)；(2)通过聚合社区范围内和整个恢复时间范围内单个建筑的CTMC恢复过程来建模建筑组合级别的恢复。我们以一致的方式传播与恢复过程相关的不确定性，以便以概率的方式量化投资组合恢复指标。拟议的建筑组合恢复模式旨在支持了解风险的社区复原力规划和减灾。(C)2017爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Understanding the process of post-disaster recovery is a critical step toward assessing and achieving community resilience. However, the recovery process of a community building portfolio as a spatially distributed system is intrinsically complex and highly uncertain, and is conditional on the resourcefulness and social-economic characteristics of the community as well as the various decisions made by numerous community stakeholders and building owners at different phases of the recovery. We propose a simulation-based building portfolio recovery model (BPRM) to predict the functionality recovery time and recovery trajectory of a community building portfolio following natural scenario hazard events, in two steps: (1) modeling individual building-level restoration as a discrete state, continuous time Markov Chain (CTMC); and (2) modeling building portfolio-level recovery through aggregating the CTMC restoration processes of individual buildings across the domain of the community and over the entire recovery time horizon. We propagate uncertainties associated with the recovery process in a consistent manner in order to quantify portfolio recovery metrics probabilistically. The proposed building portfolio recovery model is intended to support risk-informed community resilience planning and hazard mitigation. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.