The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts
The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts
复制标题
欧洲增长和通胀预测的准确性
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Wentworth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michael K. Andersson;K. Hansson;A. Kanis;S. Öberg;Erik Ruist;S. Wentworth
抽象。分析了经合组织和13个欧洲国家的国内生产总值增长和通货膨胀的国家机构的一年预测。RMSE很大：增长率为1.9%，通货膨胀率为1.6%。六（11）个经合组织和10（7）个机构的增长预测记录明显好于平均增长预测（本年度预测）。所有创纪录的通胀预测都明显好于这两个天真的替代方案。经合组织和研究所的预测在准确性上没有显著差异。两个预测被发现是有偏见的，一个有自相关误差。在一半的情况下，方向性预测明显优于天真的替代方案。总体而言，通货膨胀预测比增长预测准确得多，与增长预测相比，通货膨胀预测一般会随着时间的推移而改善。这对经济政策有影响。正偏差修正揭示了数据中的大误差。
Abstract. One-year-ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries are analysed. RMSE was large: 1.9 % for growth and 1.6 % for inflation. Six (11) OECD and 10 (7) institute growth forecast records were significantly better than an average growth forecast (the current year forecast). All full record-length inflation forecasts were significantly better than both naive alternatives. There was no significant difference in accuracy between the forecasts of the OECD and the institutes. Two forecasts were found to be biased and one had auto correlated errors. Directional forecasts were significantly better than a naive alternative in one-half of the cases. Overall, inflation forecasts were significantly more accurate than growth forecasts, and in contrast to growth forecasts, they generally improved over time. This has implications for economic policy. Positively biased revisions reveal large errors in data.