Do High Oil Prices Matter? Evidence on the Mobility Behavior of German Households
Do High Oil Prices Matter? Evidence on the Mobility Behavior of German Households
复制标题
高油价重要吗？
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Colin Vance
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Frondel;Colin Vance
本文以德国的出行调查数据为基础，研究了汽车出行的决定因素，具体目的是量化燃料价格和燃料经济性的影响。分析是基于这样一个概念，即汽车里程是一个两阶段的决策过程，包括离散的选择是否拥有一辆汽车和连续的选择行驶的距离。为了捕捉这一过程，我们采用了由Probit和OLS估计量组成的删失回归模型，这使我们能够衡量样本选择性可能使结果产生偏差的程度。我们的弹性估计表明，燃油经济性提高和驾驶增加之间存在显着的正相关关系，而燃油价格弹性则显着为负，范围在-35%至-41%之间。综上所述，这些结果表明，在减少排放方面，燃油税可能是比燃油效率标准更有效的政策措施。
Focusing on travel survey data from Germany, this paper investigates the determinants of automobile travel, with the specific aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices and fuel economy. The analysis is predicated on the notion that car mileage is a two-stage decision process, comprising the discrete choice of whether to own a car and the continuous choice of distance traveled. To capture this process, we employ censored regression models consisting of Probit and OLS estimators, which allows us to gauge the extent to which sample selectivity may bias the results. Our elasticity estimates indicate a significant positive association between increased fuel economy and increased driving, and a significantly negative fuel-price elasticity, which ranges between − 35% and − 41%. Taken together, these results suggest that fuel taxes are likely to be a more effective policy measure in reducing emissions than fuel-efficiency standards.