Policy uncertainty and cost of delaying reform: The case of aging Japan
Policy uncertainty and cost of delaying reform: The case of aging Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.red.2017.11.005
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Kitao, Sagiri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kitao, Sagiri
在一个拥有慷慨的现收现付社会保障体系的老龄化经济中，改革是不可避免的。然而，改革的时间和结构往往是未知的。我们明确地在一般均衡生命周期模型中建模政策不确定性，并让代理更新预期，并随着时间的推移对不确定性做出反应。以面临严重人口和财政挑战的日本为例，我们通过推迟改革或缩小改革范围，量化了几代人之间的福利权衡。个人对延迟的反应是减少储蓄和减少工作，同时面临更高的税收以支付过渡期间的额外支出。财政不确定性本身对老年人有更大的不利影响，他们面临更大的收入风险和更低的退休储蓄回报。(C) 2017爱思唯尔公司版权所有。
Reform is inevitable in an aging economy with a generous pay-as-you-go social security system. Often, however, the timing and structure of reform are unknown. We explicitly model policy uncertainty in a general equilibrium life-cycle model and let agents update expectations and react as uncertainty is resolved over time. Using the case of Japan, a country facing severe demographic and fiscal challenges, we quantify welfare tradeoff across generations by delaying reform or reducing its scope. Individuals respond to a delay by dis-saving and working less, while facing higher taxes to cover additional expenditures during the transition. Fiscal uncertainty itself has a more significant adverse effect on older individuals, who face greater income risks and a lower return on their retirement savings. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.