The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic
The dispersion of age differences between partners and the asymptotic dynamics of the HIV epidemic
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DOI：
10.1080/17513758.2012.688146
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Ducrot, Arnaud
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
d'Albis, Hippolyte;Augeraud-Veron, Emmanuelle;Ducrot, Arnaud
本文研究了性伴年龄差异分布的变化对HIV流行动态的影响。在性别和年龄结构的隔室模型中，结果表明，如果分布的方差足够小，则这种方差的增加强烈地增加了基本繁殖次数。此外，如果方差足够大，平均年龄差异对基本繁殖数几乎没有影响。因此，我们得出结论，无病平衡点的局部稳定性更多地依赖于方差而不是平均值。
In this paper, the effect of a change in the distribution of age differences between sexual partners on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic is studied. In a gender- and age-structured compartmental model, it is shown that if the variance of the distribution is small enough, an increase in this variance strongly increases the basic reproduction number. Moreover, if the variance is large enough, the mean age difference barely affects the basic reproduction number. We, therefore, conclude that the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium relies more on the variance than on the mean.