The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming
The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-023-01829-8
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发表时间：
2023-10
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
J. Mecking;S. Drijfhout
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Mecking;S. Drijfhout
海洋正在吸收额外的热量，但这如何影响海洋环流和热量输送尚不清楚。在这里，使用耦合模式相互比较项目第5/6阶段（CMIP 5/6）的气候预测，我们表明，未来在整个北方纬度和10° S以南的极地海洋热传输（OHT）减少。最值得注意的是，CMIP 5/6多模式对大西洋26.5° N和印度洋-太平洋20° S的极向OHT的平均减少分别为0.093-0.304 PW和0.097-0.194 PW，取决于情景和CMIP相位。OHT的这些变化是由上层海洋变暖所抑制的翻转环流的下降所驱动的。在南大洋，55° S处的极向OHT减少为0.071-0.268 PW。CMIP 6的预测变化更强，即使在对其更大的气候敏感性进行校正后。这在大西洋较弱的强迫情景中尤其明显（共享社会经济路径SSP 1-2.6/代表性浓度路径RCP 2.6），由于大西洋纬向翻转环流的更强下降，在26.5° N处的下降幅度要大2.5倍。
The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.