Assessment of flood risks in Pearl River Delta due to levee breaching
Assessment of flood risks in Pearl River Delta due to levee breaching
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DOI：
10.1080/17499518.2013.790733
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发表时间：
2013-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L.M. Zhang;Y. Xu;Y. Liu;Min Peng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L.M. Zhang;Y. Xu;Y. Liu;Min Peng
堤防系统可能会给受该系统保护的人带来巨大的风险。风险分析是堤防风险缓解和工程决策的核心。需要一种明确的方法来分析堤防决口造成的洪水风险。本文以广东省珠江北岸水系中国为例，介绍了洪水风险分析的具体步骤。对石角附近7+330里程碑百年一遇洪水下的堤防性能进行了评价。计算了三种失效模式的失效概率：溢流型、管道型和滑移型。模拟了平均海平面以上15.5m水位百年一遇的大堤决口洪水情景。死亡率是使用基于贝叶斯网络HURAM的估计洪水中人的生命脆弱性的模型来估计的。根据风险分析程序和HURAM的病死率最终估计有条件的生命损失。文中还讨论了减轻堤防风险的可能措施。
A levee system may pose enormous risks to the people protected by the system. Risk analysis is at the heart of levee risk mitigation and engineering decision-making. An explicit methodology for the analysis of flood risk due to levee breaching is desirable. In this paper, a case study on the risks of the North Pearl River Levee System (NPRLS) in Guangdong Province, China, is conducted to illustrate an explicit procedure of flood risk analysis. The performance of the levee upon a 100-year flood at milestone 7 +330 near Shijiao is evaluated. The failure probabilities are evaluated for three failure modes: overtopping, piping and slope sliding. The flood scenario resulted from a levee breach in a 100-year flood event at water level 15.5 m above the mean sea level is simulated. The fatality rate is estimated using a model for estimating the vulnerability of human lives in floods based on Bayesian networks, HURAM. The conditional loss of life is finally estimated according to the risk analysis procedure and the fatality rates from HURAM. Possible measures to mitigate the risks of the levee are also discussed.