An age-structured model to evaluate the potential of novel malaria-control interventions: a case study of fungal biopesticide sprays
An age-structured model to evaluate the potential of novel malaria-control interventions: a case study of fungal biopesticide sprays
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2008.0689
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发表时间：
2009-01-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Godfray, H. C. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hancock, P. A.;Thomas, M. B.;Godfray, H. C. J.
最近有人提出，可以通过喷洒真菌生物杀虫剂来控制人类疾病，特别是疟疾的蚊子媒介，这增加了成人死亡率。虽然真菌病原体不会立即导致死亡，但它们可以在蚊子达到传播疾病的年龄之前杀死它们。开发了一个模型(i)探索真菌昆虫病原体显著减少传染性蚊子种群的潜力，（ii）评估可能使用的许多不同真菌菌株的相对价值，以及（iii）帮助指导媒介控制规划的战术设计。该模型遵循不同类别的成年蚊子的动态变化，假设真菌是感染后时间的函数（使用威布尔分布建模）。研究表明，在蚊子、真菌和疟疾生物学和中等至低的每日真菌感染概率的现实假设下，大幅度减少蚊子数量是可行的。最佳真菌菌株和喷洒方案的选择取决于当地的蚊子和疟疾生物学。真菌病原体也可能影响蚊子传播疟疾的能力，这种影响已被证明会进一步降低病媒的能力。
It has recently been proposed that mosquito vectors of human diseases, particularly malaria, may be controlled by spraying with fungal biopesticides that increase the rate of adult mortality. Though fungal pathogens do not cause instantaneous mortality, they can kill mosquitoes before they are old enough to transmit disease. A model is developed (i) to explore the potential for fungal entomopathogens to reduce significantly infectious mosquito populations, (ii) to assess the relative value of the many different fungal strains that might be used, and (iii) to help guide the tactical design of vector-control programmes. The model follows the dynamics of different classes of adult mosquitoes with the risk of mortality due to the fungus being assumed to be a function of time since infection (modelled using the Weibull distribution). It is shown that substantial reductions in mosquito numbers are feasible for realistic assumptions about mosquito, fungus and malaria biology and moderate to low daily fungal infection probability. The choice of optimal fungal strain and spraying regime is shown to depend on local mosquito and malaria biology. Fungal pathogens may also influence the ability of mosquitoes to transmit malaria and such effects are shown to further reduce vectorial capacity.